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ASX 200 set to open 0.9% lower as Brent jumps 7.75% to US$109 and the US 10-year reaches 4.94%

SPI futures point 78 points lower. Brent at US$109.05 after Iranian strikes near Hormuz, the US 10-year at 4.944%, and US CPI due tonight.

Bearish4 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,819-1.03%
AU VIX13.14+11.84%
S&P 5007,592-0.58%
NASDAQ26,082-0.65%
Dow52,064-0.60%
VIX17.84+8.38%
Gold4,362-1.23%
Brent109.05+7.75%
AUD/USD0.716-0.79%

ASX 200 set to open 0.9% lower as Brent jumps 7.75% to US$109 and the US 10-year reaches 4.94%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.9%

SPI futures point to the S&P/ASX 200 opening about 78 points or 0.9% lower on 11 September 2026, after Brent crude rose 7.75% to US$109.05 a barrel on Iranian strikes against US Navy ships and oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, and the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 10.7 basis points to 4.944%. Oracle ORCL.US traded at US$159.10 after hours, 4.03% above its close, after reporting cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to US$7.4 billion; the stock had fallen 5.38% in the regular session. Tonight's US August CPI is the last inflation print before the 15 to 16 September FOMC meeting, where CME FedWatch priced 69% odds of a rate hike.

Overnight drivers

  • Crude: Brent US$109.05 at 8:30 AEST, 7.75% above Wednesday's US$101.21 settlement, and WTI US$103.92, up 8.19%. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said its navy targeted two US Navy vessels and eight oil tankers, and Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port of Mocha near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Woodside WDS.AU and Santos STO.AU sell that barrel; Qantas QAN.AU buys the jet fuel refined from it.
  • US rates: the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.944%, its highest since 2023, after August producer prices rose 5.4% year on year against a 5.3% forecast. The ECB raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.5% on the same day. Commonwealth Bank CBA.AU, Goodman GMG.AU and Scentre SCG.AU price against that yield.
  • Chips: the PHLX Semiconductor index fell 2.66%, with Micron MU.US -4.90% and Nvidia NVDA.US -2.37%. Oracle booked more than US$30 billion of new AI cloud contracts in the quarter, taking its backlog to US$664 billion. Data-centre operator NEXTDC NXT.AU fell 3.83% on Thursday, before that result.
  • Metals: gold US$4,361.70/oz, down 1.23%, and copper US$6.525/lb, down 4.09%, as the ICE US Dollar Index rose 0.28% to 99.09. Northern Star NST.AU, Evolution EVN.AU and Sandfire SFR.AU open against both.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,591.70 (-0.58%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 26,081.73 (-0.65%)
  • Dow Jones: 52,064.10 (-0.60%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,890.95 (-1.04%)
  • VIX: 17.84 (+8.38%)

All three headline indices fell for a fourth straight session. The Russell 2000 at -1.04% fell almost twice as far as the S&P 500, with the US 2-year yield up about 10 basis points to 4.53%. Apple AAPL.US rose 3.56% to US$326.57 on approval of its US$1,999 iPhone Duo foldable. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.65%, a quarter of the chip index's 2.66% drop.

Meta META.US -1.42% returned part of Wednesday's 6.55% gain, Tesla TSLA.US fell 1.16% and Broadcom AVGO.US 0.97%. Microsoft MSFT.US +0.16% and Alphabet GOOGL.US +0.59% closed higher. Exxon XOM.US rose 0.61% with crude, and Newmont NEM.US fell 2.00% with gold.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Brent: US$109.05 (+7.75% on Wednesday's settlement)
  • WTI: US$103.92 (+8.19%)
  • Gold: US$4,361.70/oz (-1.23%)
  • Copper: US$6.525/lb (-4.09%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: US$98.20/t (-1.3%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7160 (-0.79%)

AUD/USD fell 0.79% to 0.7160 as the US dollar index rose, which lifts the Australian dollar value of US-dollar revenue at CSL.AU, ResMed RMD.AU and Cochlear COH.AU. Copper fell 4.09%, more than three times gold's 1.23%. BHP.AU fell 1.77% and Rio Tinto RIO.AU 2.71% on Thursday, before that copper move and before iron ore's 1.3% drop to US$98.20/t.

Key themes for ASX open

  • 8,819.4 was Thursday's S&P/ASX 200 close, down 1.03%. A 78 point gap puts the open near 8,741.4, below Thursday's 8,742.6 intraday low.
  • WDS.AU closed Thursday at $32.92, down 0.66%, and STO.AU at $8.53, up 0.12%. Both closed before Brent settled at US$107.63 that evening and reached US$109.05 by this morning.
  • CBA.AU -1.32%, NAB.AU -1.44% and Westpac WBC.AU -1.57% on Thursday, with the RBA decision 18 days away on 29 September and the cash rate at 4.35% after three increases in 2026.
  • Xero XRO.AU -3.96%, NXT.AU -3.83% and WiseTech WTC.AU -1.62% on Thursday, before the chip index's 2.66% fall and Oracle's after-hours gain.
  • AU VIX at 13.14, up 11.84% on Thursday, implies a typical daily move near 0.8%, below the 0.9% gap the SPI is pricing.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEST: ABS Labour Account Australia (June quarter), Overseas Arrivals and Departures (July) and Multiple job-holders (June quarter).
  • 22:30 AEST: US August CPI, consensus 3.4% year on year.
  • 15 to 16 September: FOMC meeting. 29 September: RBA decision.

What to watch

  • WDS.AU and STO.AU against Thursday's closes of $32.92 and $8.53, set before Brent's settlement at US$107.63.
  • CBA.AU, NAB.AU and WBC.AU against a 4.944% US 10-year and a 69% FOMC hike probability.
  • US CPI at 22:30 AEST, the last inflation print before the FOMC, with the S&P 500 on four straight losses.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →