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ASX 200 futures up 31 points as Brent settles 2.91% higher at US$108.75 and the US 10-year closes at 4.996%

S&P 500 futures sit 0.03% below their ASX-close level, copper is 1.5% higher, and a 25 bp Fed hike is about 92% priced for Thursday 04:00 AEST

Mixed5 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,673-0.88%
All Ords8,849-0.84%
AU VIX14.33+2.00%
S&P 5007,586-0.45%
NASDAQ25,982-0.78%
Dow52,093-0.63%
VIX17.2+0.58%
Gold4,333-0.44%
Brent108.75+2.91%
AUD/USD0.7134+0.10%
SPI_F8,704+0.35%

ASX 200 futures up 31 points as Brent settles 2.91% higher at US$108.75 and the US 10-year closes at 4.996%

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.35%

S&P/ASX 200 futures were up 31 points, or 0.35%, at 08:26 AEST on 16 September 2026, after Tuesday's 0.88% fall to 8,672.5, because S&P 500 futures are 0.03% below their level at the ASX close and copper is 1.5% higher over the same window. ENVA.US fell 23.43% to US$173.61, the largest single-stock move in this brief, after Enova withdrew its regulatory applications to buy Grasshopper Bancorp. Brent settled 2.91% higher at US$108.75 with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline still shut, and the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.016% before closing at 4.996%, one day before a Fed decision with a 25 basis point hike about 92% priced.

Overnight drivers

  • US futures since the ASX close: S&P 500 futures were at 7,663.25 at 08:30 AEST, against 7,665.5 at 17:30 AEST on Tuesday, a change of 0.03%. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.29% lower over the same window at 29,273. S&P 500 futures were down 0.35% by the ASX close, so most of the cash index's 0.45% overnight fall traded during Tuesday's ASX session.
  • Crude: Brent settled at US$108.75, up 2.91%, and October WTI at US$105.83, up 4.38%. Houthi forces struck Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait airbase, and the East-West pipeline, whose usual flow is about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, stayed shut. XLE.US, the US energy fund, rose 2.17%.
  • US yields and the Fed: The 10-year Treasury yield closed 3.5 bp higher at 4.996% after a 5.016% high, and the 30-year closed at 5.364%. Fed funds futures price about a 92% chance of a 25 bp hike to 3.75% to 4.00% at 04:00 AEST Thursday, which would be the first increase since July 2023. The US Dollar Index rose 0.22% to 99.61.
  • Metals: December copper traded at US$6.4675/lb, 1.5% above US$6.37 at the ASX close. The BHP.US ADR rose 0.04% to US$84.77, about $59.41 a share at 0.7134 AUD/USD and 0.28% above BHP.AU's $59.25 close. December gold settled 0.44% lower at US$4,332.80, while NEM.US rose 0.91%.

Overnight Wall Street

Tuesday 15 September close:

  • S&P 500: 7,585.73 (-0.45%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 25,981.57 (-0.78%)
  • Dow Jones: 52,093.11 (-0.63%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,870.29 (-0.76%)
  • VIX: 17.20 (+0.58%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,585.73 on 15 September 2026, down 34.25 points or 0.45%, its second straight fall and its lowest level since 3 August, per Market Index. XLE.US (+2.17%) and XLB.US (+0.48%) were the only two of the 11 sector funds to rise. XLY.US fell 1.75% with AMZN.US down 2.02%, XLU.US fell 1.20% and XLC.US 0.90%, while MSFT.US lost 1.64% and GOOGL.US 1.26%. The PHLX Semiconductor index rose 0.40% to 11,175.55 after Monday's 5.86% fall, with AMD.US up 2.19% and NVDA.US 0.57%; AVGO.US fell 1.58%.

SWKS.US rose 13.55% to US$90.00 after Skyworks said its US$22 billion merger with Qorvo has reached its final stages, and QRVO.US rose 9.34% to US$118.06. The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index fell 13 points to 7.6 in September. Bitcoin fell 3.81% to US$75,550 after the CLARITY Act failed cloture votes in the Senate. Wells Fargo cut its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,700 from 7,950, and the Bank of America fund manager survey showed a net 49% of respondents overweight global equities, down from 56% in August.

The FTSE 100 fell 0.37% to 10,658.13 on Tuesday and the DAX 0.15% to 25,402.28.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

Brent traded at US$108.35 at 08:30 AEST on 16 September 2026, 0.85% above US$107.44 at Tuesday's ASX close. Prices below are at 08:30 AEST unless stated.

  • Brent: US$108.35 (-0.37%); Tuesday settle US$108.75 (+2.91%)
  • WTI, October: US$105.47 (-0.34%); Tuesday settle US$105.83 (+4.38%)
  • Gold, December futures: US$4,332.80/oz; Tuesday settle US$4,332.80 (-0.44%)
  • Copper, December futures: US$6.4675/lb (+0.37%)
  • Silver, December futures: US$64.23/oz (+0.59%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7134, against 0.7127 at the ASX close
  • US Dollar Index: 99.61 (+0.22%)

Copper is 1.5% above its level at the ASX close and gold is 0.06% above US$4,330.20. The Australian dollar is 0.07 US cents higher than at the ASX close.

Key themes for ASX open

  • WDS.AU (-2.21% to $32.35) and STO.AU (-2.06% to $8.55) closed lower on Tuesday with Brent at US$107.44. Brent then settled at US$108.75 and XLE.US rose 2.17%.
  • CBA.AU fell 1.59% to $152.50 on Tuesday, NAB.AU 1.29% and MQG.AU 2.45%, as Australia's 10-year yield reached 5.40%, the highest since May 2011. The US 10-year closed at 4.996% overnight.
  • BHP.AU (-2.21% to $59.25), RIO.AU (-2.20% to $164.50) and FMG.AU (-1.88% to $16.22) fell on Tuesday. The BHP.US ADR converts to 0.28% above the BHP.AU close.
  • NST.AU (-2.61%) and EVN.AU (-3.10%) fell on Tuesday with December gold at US$4,330.20. Gold settled at US$4,332.80 and GDX.US closed at -0.01%.
  • IFT.AU (-3.10% to $10.93 on Tuesday) raised FY27 proportionate EBITDAF guidance to NZ$1.32 billion to NZ$1.42 billion, from NZ$1.30 billion to NZ$1.40 billion. Its CDC Data Centres business lifted its FY27 range to $710 million to $750 million on a further 70 MW of contracts. NXT.AU fell 4.01% on Tuesday.
  • SLX.AU (-5.05%) and PDN.AU (-0.52%) fell on Tuesday, and CCJ.US fell 2.20% and URA.US 1.00% overnight. PLS.AU (-3.40%) fell on Tuesday before ALB.US lost 1.37%.
  • BGP.AU ($3.69 Tuesday close) reported first-half sales of NZ$374.2 million, up 0.8%, and net profit down 5.8% to NZ$27.6 million, with a 10.0 cent interim dividend.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEST: ABS quarterly tourism labour statistics and corrective services data, June quarter
  • 22:30 AEST: US retail sales and import and export prices for August
  • Thu 04:00 AEST: FOMC decision and projections; 04:30 Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference
  • Thu 11:30 AEST: ABS national, state and territory population, March quarter
  • Thu 21:00 AEST: Bank of England decision; New Zealand second-quarter GDP is also due Thursday
  • Fri 09:30 AEST: RBA before the House Economics Committee; Bank of Japan decision about 13:00, with a hike priced above 90%; S&P/ASX quarterly rebalance effective after the close

What to watch

  • 8,672.5 was Tuesday's S&P/ASX 200 close, down 0.88% and the lowest close since 12 June, on breadth of 83 advancers to 133 decliners.
  • 14.33 on the S&P/ASX 200 volatility index (+2.00% on Tuesday), against 17.20 on the US VIX.
  • 5.016% was the US 10-year intraday high; Australia's 10-year reached 5.40% on Tuesday.
  • 92% is the Fed funds futures probability of a 25 bp hike at 04:00 AEST Thursday.
  • KOSPI 6,627.26 (-0.85%) and Hang Seng 24,667.24 (-1.00%) closed lower on Tuesday; Tokyo opens at 10:00 AEST.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →