ASX 200 futures down 68 points after the Fed lifts rates to 3.75% to 4.00% and US banks fall up to 3.96%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.8%

S&P/ASX 200 futures were down 68 points, or 0.8%, at 06:21 AEST on 17 September 2026 because the Federal Reserve raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and 16 of the 18 officials who submitted projections expect another increase this year. JBHT.US fell 13.30% to US$236.73, the largest single-stock move in this brief, after J.B. Hunt warned of lower earnings and higher operating costs, while GS.US led the Dow lower at -3.96%. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.006% and the US Dollar Index rose 0.73% to 100.34, which took AUD/USD 0.62% lower to 0.7090 and December gold 2.04% below its Wednesday settle.

Overnight drivers

• Fed decision: The FOMC voted unanimously for a 25 bp hike to 3.75% to 4.00% at 04:00 AEST. The median 2026 rate projection rose to 4.1% from 3.8%, and four officials see two more increases this year. Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit a projection. Money markets price about a 50% chance of another hike in October.
• US banks: GS.US -3.96%, WFC.US -2.98%, BAC.US -2.72%, C.US -2.36% and JPM.US -1.01%. CBA.AU closed 0.63% lower at $151.54 on Wednesday, before the decision.
• Yields and the US dollar: The 10-year yield rose 1 bp to 5.006%, its highest close since 2007, and the 5-year rose 3.3 bp to 4.859%. AUD/USD fell 0.62% to 0.7090 as the US Dollar Index gained 0.73%. ASX 30-day interbank futures priced a 78% chance of an RBA hike to 4.60% on 29 September as of 15 September.
• Crude: Brent settled 2.7% lower at US$105.83 and WTI 3.2% lower at US$102.43 after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Saudi pipeline outage "will be measured in days". XOM.US fell 3.54% and CVX.US 2.86%.

Overnight Wall Street

Wednesday 16 September close:

• S&P 500: 7,551.81 (-0.45%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,978.42 (-0.01%)
• Dow Jones: 51,461.90 (-1.21%)
• Russell 2000: 2,858.81 (-0.40%)
• VIX: 17.71 (+2.97%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,461.90 on 16 September 2026, down 631.21 points or 1.21%, after US indices gave up earlier gains during Chair Warsh's press conference. GS.US was the largest Dow decliner at -3.96%, while MSFT.US fell 1.37%, AMZN.US 0.99% and GOOGL.US 0.61%. INTC.US rose 4.03% on reports of a memory chip partnership with SK Hynix, AMD.US gained 1.65% and NVDA.US 0.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed 3.15 points lower.

August US retail sales rose 1.2%, against 0.9% expected. S&P 500 futures traded at 7,629.25 at about 08:30 AEST, 0.08% above Wednesday's settle, and Nasdaq 100 futures at 29,296 (+0.13%).

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

Brent traded at US$105.58 at about 08:30 AEST on 17 September 2026, 0.24% below Wednesday's US$105.83 settle. Prices below are at about 08:30 AEST unless stated.

• Brent: US$105.58 (-0.24%); Wednesday settle US$105.83 (-2.7%)
• WTI, October: US$101.94 (-0.48%); Wednesday settle US$102.43 (-3.2%)
• Gold, December futures: US$4,298.20/oz (-2.04% from the US$4,387.50 settle)
• Silver, December futures: US$63.34/oz (-2.44%)
• Copper, December futures: US$6.446/lb (-0.97%)
• Iron ore: US$97/t (+0.32%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7090 (-0.62%)
• US Dollar Index: 100.34 (+0.73%)

Gold fell 2.04% and silver 2.44% after the decision, as the US Dollar Index rose 0.73% and the 10-year yield held above 5%. NEM.US closed 1.96% lower. Copper is 0.97% below its prior settle.

Key themes for ASX open

• NST.AU (+0.23% to $22.09) and EVN.AU (+1.07% to $13.27) rose on Wednesday. December gold now trades 2.04% below Wednesday's settle.
• WDS.AU (+2.84% to $33.27) and STO.AU (+2.11% to $8.73) led energy higher on Wednesday. Brent then settled 2.7% lower at US$105.83.
• CBA.AU ($151.54) fell 0.63% on Wednesday. US banks lost 1.01% to 3.96% overnight after the Fed projected another hike.
• BHP.AU (+1.60% to $60.20), RIO.AU (+1.06% to $166.25) and FMG.AU (+1.97% to $16.54) rose on Wednesday. The BHP.US ADR fell 0.74% to US$84.14, about $59.34 a share at 0.7090 AUD/USD, or 1.4% below the BHP.AU close; RIO.US fell 1.51%.
• CSL.AU closed 0.09% higher at $174.41 on Wednesday. AUD/USD has since fallen 0.62% to 0.7090, which raises the Australian dollar value of its US-dollar revenue.

Economic calendar today

• 08:45 AEST: New Zealand June-quarter GDP (Stats NZ)
• 11:30 AEST: ABS national, state and territory population, March quarter
• 21:00 AEST: Bank of England decision, with Bank Rate at 3.75%
• 22:30 AEST: US weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for September
• Fri 09:30 AEST: RBA before the House Economics Committee; Bank of Japan decision; September SPI 200 futures expiry, with the S&P/ASX quarterly rebalance effective after Friday's close

What to watch

• 8,696.5 was Wednesday's S&P/ASX 200 close, up 0.28%, with futures 68 points lower at 06:21 AEST.
• 13.69 on the S&P/ASX 200 volatility index (-4.51% on Wednesday), against 17.71 on the US VIX.
• 5.006% on the US 10-year, with money markets pricing about a 50% chance of an October Fed hike.
• 78% is the futures-implied probability of an RBA hike to 4.60% on 29 September.

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