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ASX 200 futures point 0.3% lower as the US 30-year yield reaches 5.46%

Brent settled 3.4% higher at US$106.60 and Oracle fell 3.47% on a force majeure notice

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,702-0.72%
S&P 5007,704-0.02%
NASDAQ26,939+0.01%
Dow51,350-0.31%
VIX15.67+3.23%
Gold4,298-0.47%
Brent106.6+3.41%
AUD/USD0.7015-0.36%

ASX 200 futures point 0.3% lower as the US 30-year yield reaches 5.46%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.3%

ASX SPI 200 futures point to a 28-point, 0.3% fall at the open after the US 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.461%, its highest level since 2004, and the 10-year added 4.8 basis points to 5.162%. Oracle ORCL.US fell 3.47% after Bloomberg reported a force majeure notice on its New Mexico data centre project, while Meta META.US rose 4.50% on its plan to charge merchants a fee on purchases made by its Muse AI agent. Brent crude settled 3.4% higher at US$106.60 a barrel after Iran threatened to widen the conflict, and the Australian dollar fell 0.36% to US$0.7015.

Overnight drivers

  • Long-end Treasury yields: the 10-year rose 4.8 basis points to 5.162% and the 30-year 6 basis points to 5.461%. The 10-year has closed above 5.1% for two sessions, a level last seen in 2007. Weekly jobless claims fell 1,000 to 197,000, with continuing claims at 1.72 million. CBA.AU, WBC.AU and NAB.AU fell 0.71%, 1.81% and 1.32% on Thursday on the first leg of the yield rise.
  • Crude up 3.4%: Brent settled at US$106.60 a barrel from US$103.08, and WTI rose 2.7% to US$94.61, after Iran threatened to broaden the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. A late Reuters report that US and Iranian negotiators were working on a phased shipping agreement pulled stocks off their lows. WDS.AU rose 1.54% and STO.AU 1.79% on Thursday before this move.
  • Gold down 0.5%: December gold futures settled at US$4,298/oz, down from US$4,318, against a US dollar index up 0.15% to 101.25. NEM.US fell 1.82%. EVN.AU (-1.65%) and NST.AU (-2.32%) fell on Thursday and open against a lower bullion price.
  • AUD at 0.7015: the Australian dollar fell 0.36% overnight and is down from US$0.7119 on Monday. A lower AUD lifts the Australian-dollar value of US revenue at CSL.AU, RMD.AU and JHX.AU.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,704.13 (-0.02%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 26,939.37 (+0.01%)
  • Dow Jones: 51,349.98 (-0.31%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,835.57 (-0.11%)
  • VIX: 15.67 (+3.23%)

The S&P 500 traded as low as 7,662.57 and closed at 7,704.13 after the Reuters report on a phased Hormuz agreement. META.US rose 4.50% to US$777.59 after Mark Zuckerberg said Muse, the company's AI agent, will earn money from a fee on the transactions it completes, paid by merchants, rather than from advertising. ORCL.US fell 3.47% to US$139.54 on the force majeure notice, which seeks to delay payments to the Blue Owl Capital developer if the data centre misses its 2028 start. Oracle said the project remains on schedule.

MGM.US fell 10.99% to US$33.69 after Barry Diller withdrew a US$18 billion takeover proposal. DRI.US, the Olive Garden owner, fell 3.02% after first-quarter earnings missed forecasts. COST.US fell 0.91% ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter result after the close. NVDA.US slipped 0.41% and MU.US rose 0.81%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,298/oz (-0.47%)
  • Brent: US$106.60 (+3.41%)
  • WTI: US$94.61 (+2.66%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7015 (-0.36%)
  • US dollar index: 101.25 (+0.15%)

WDS.AU closed Thursday at A$31.61 and STO.AU at A$8.55, before Brent's 3.4% gain. EVN.AU, NST.AU and NEM.AU face bullion 0.5% lower and a 30-year yield 6 basis points higher; they fell 1.65%, 2.32% and 1.46% on Thursday.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Iron-ore majors: BHP.AU (-1.69%), RIO.AU (-0.69%) and FMG.AU (-0.59%) fell on Thursday, with BHP.AU closing at A$61.02.
  • Index level: the ASX 200 closed Thursday at 8,702.0, down 0.72%; a 28-point fall at the open would put it near 8,674.
  • Local volatility: the S&P/ASX 200 VIX rose 6.64% to 11.73 on Thursday, against a US VIX at 15.67.

Economic calendar today

  • Tue 29 Sep, 14:30 AEST: RBA Monetary Policy Board decision after the 28 to 29 September meeting.
  • Wed 30 Sep, 22:30 AEST: US August PCE price index; July showed headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.3% year on year.

What to watch

  • 5.1%: the US 10-year yield level into the RBA decision on Tuesday.
  • US$106.60: Brent's settle, ahead of any confirmed Hormuz shipping agreement.
  • COST.US: after-hours trading on its fiscal fourth-quarter result.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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