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ASX 200 futures flat as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan before Tuesday's RBA decision

November Brent rebounded 1.53% to US$105.92 early Monday, and all four major banks expect the cash rate at 4.60% on Tuesday

Mixed3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,665-0.43%
S&P 5007,743+0.51%
NASDAQ27,069+0.48%
Dow51,829+0.93%
VIX14.87-5.11%
Gold4,321+0.54%
Brent104.32-2.14%
AUD/USD0.7016+0.01%
ES_F7,784-0.26%
NQ_F30,800-0.29%

ASX 200 futures flat as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan before Tuesday's RBA decision

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.0% (3 points higher)

ASX SPI 200 futures point to a 3-point gain at the open on Monday 28 September 2026, as Friday's 0.51% rise in the S&P 500 to 7,743.41 met a 1.53% rebound in November Brent to US$105.92 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. MSFT.US rose 3.66% to US$516.17 on Friday after Microsoft rebuilt Copilot around a new Autopilot agent, while ZS.US fell 10.06%. The RBA board announces its decision at 14:30 AEST on Tuesday, and Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB and ANZ all expect a 25 basis point hike from 4.35% to 4.60%.

Overnight drivers

  • Iran and crude: Trump said on Friday that Iran's plan, presented at the UN General Assembly, "would not be acceptable". The plan asked the US to release frozen funds, lift oil sanctions and end its naval blockade within four to five days, with the strait reopening and final talks starting by day seven. November Brent settled Friday 2.14% lower at US$104.32, then traded 1.53% higher at US$105.92 early Monday; WTI rose 0.96% to US$93.30. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that no rejection had arrived through official channels.
  • US yields: the 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.2 basis points to 5.184% on Friday and the 30-year 4.3 basis points to 5.504%. ANZ.AU (+1.10%), WBC.AU (+1.05%), NAB.AU (+1.02%) and CBA.AU (+0.57%) rose on Friday ahead of the RBA decision.
  • US and China trade: Xi Jinping's three-day Washington visit ended on Friday with an agreement to cut tariffs on US$30 billion of goods, set up a trade council and hold an AI dialogue in November. The cuts cover US farm goods and wood, and Chinese small appliances and toys. BHP.AU (-0.49%), RIO.AU (-0.97%) and FMG.AU (-2.27%) closed Friday before the announcement.
  • Gold: December gold settled 0.54% higher at US$4,321.20/oz on Friday and traded 0.44% lower at US$4,302 early Monday. NST.AU fell 0.72% on Friday, EVN.AU 0.07%, and CMM.AU rose 0.46%.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,743.41 (+0.51%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 27,068.72 (+0.48%)
  • Dow Jones: 51,828.62 (+0.93%)
  • VIX: 14.87 (-5.11%)
  • S&P 500 futures, early Monday: 7,783.50 (-0.26%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures, early Monday: 30,799.50 (-0.29%)

The S&P 500 gained 1.21% for the week to 25 September. MSFT.US contributed about 22 of Friday's 51 basis points after Satya Nadella called the rebuilt Copilot "a new OS for work". COST.US rose 2.93% to US$922.76 after fiscal fourth-quarter EPS of US$6.75 beat a US$6.48 consensus.

ZS.US fell 10.06% to US$193.05 after Zscaler named a new chief revenue officer, and PANW.US lost 3.89%. University of Michigan consumer sentiment finished September at 48.1, down from 51.7 in August.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,321/oz (+0.54%)
  • Brent (November): US$104.32 (-2.14%)
  • WTI: US$92.41 (-2.32%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7016 (flat)
  • US dollar index: 101.04 (+0.06%)

WDS.AU closed Friday at A$31.72 (+0.35%) and STO.AU at A$8.56 (+0.12%), before Brent's 2.14% fall and Monday's 1.53% rebound. The AUD ended the week at US$0.7016, down from US$0.7119 on 21 September. CSL.AU fell 1.21% to A$176.95 on Friday, JHX.AU 2.48% and RMD.AU 0.38%.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Index level: the ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,665.0, down 0.43% and its lowest close since June; a 3-point gain would put it at 8,668.
  • Rates: ANZ forecasts a second hike to 4.85% in November. The RBA's last read was June-quarter trimmed mean inflation of 3.6%.
  • Software: XRO.AU fell 2.81% to A$57.36 on Friday and WTC.AU 2.25% to A$31.33, with Nasdaq 100 futures 0.29% lower early Monday.
  • Lithium: MIN.AU fell 3.27% to A$52.41 and PLS.AU 2.54% to A$3.84 on Friday.
  • Local volatility: the S&P/ASX 200 VIX closed Friday at 11.53, down 1.74%, against a US VIX of 14.87.

Economic calendar today

  • Mon 28 Sep: no ABS releases scheduled.
  • Tue 29 Sep, 11:30 AEST: ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator.
  • Tue 29 Sep, 14:30 AEST: RBA Monetary Policy Board decision.
  • Wed 30 Sep, 11:30 AEST: August CPI; July showed headline CPI at 3.5% and trimmed mean at 3.6% year on year.
  • Wed 30 Sep, 22:30 AEST: US August PCE price index; MU.US reports after the US close.

What to watch

  • US$105.92: early Monday November Brent, with Iran awaiting a formal US reply to its plan.
  • 4.60%: the cash rate all four major banks expect on Tuesday.
  • 5.184%: the US 10-year yield going into Wednesday's CPI and PCE prints.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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