ASX Set to Open Lower Friday as Oil Slide on Iran De-escalation Offsets Wall Street Record Run

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.15% (SPI ~-12 points)

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,041.28 (+0.26%) — fresh all-time high
• Nasdaq: 24,102.70 (+0.36%) — 12th straight gain, longest since July 2009
• Dow: 48,578.72 (+0.24%)
• VIX: 17.76 (-1.00%)

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite printed fresh record closes as traders continued to absorb conciliatory Iran rhetoric out of the White House. The Nasdaq extended its daily winning streak to a 12-session run, the longest since July 2009, capping a week in which mega-cap technology carried the tape while defensives, utilities and regional banks lagged. Breadth was moderate rather than broad-based, and the VIX drifted below 18 as option-implied insurance demand eased ahead of next week's Big Tech earnings cluster, with NFLX.US and TSM.US reports already digested during the week.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,829/oz (+0.44%)
• Brent: US$95.81 (-3.60%)
• WTI: US$87.54 (-3.98%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: ~US$107/t (roughly flat)
• Copper: US$6.05/lb (-0.44%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7185 (+0.34%) — four-year high

Crude posted its cleanest single-session drawdown in over a week. Brent and WTI both fell close to 4% after Washington signalled the Iran conflict "should be ending pretty soon" and Strait-of-Hormuz transit risk was further unwound in overnight trade. AUD/USD pushed through 0.72 intraday to a four-year high, helped by the oil-risk fade, softer US Treasury yields and fresh hawkish RBA commentary earlier in the week. That currency strength adds an overnight headwind for USD-earners such as CSL.AU, CPU.AU and the internationally-listed healthcare and industrial names, because USD revenue translates into fewer AUD at the current spot print. Iron ore on the Singapore benchmark held near US$107/t, with Dalian futures at a one-month low after fresh Chinese supply data, leaving limited incremental thrust for the majors ahead of the local open.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy complex: A 3-4% overnight oil pullback puts local producers on the back foot from the open. WDS.AU and STO.AU track international crude closely, while WHC.AU and NHC.AU face cross-complex read-through as thermal coal re-prices the Iran de-escalation tape.
• Technology: The S&P/ASX 200 Info Tech sub-index is tracking a weekly gain north of 12% through Thursday's close. WTC.AU, XRO.AU, NXT.AU, MP1.AU and TNE.AU are all running into multi-week highs, shadowing the Nasdaq record streak.
• Gold miners: Bullion held near US$4,829 overnight, but a stronger AUD/USD and firmer real yields leave NEM.AU, EVN.AU and NST.AU facing a compressed AUD-gold print on the open.
• Banks: Majors — CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU — closed Thursday on the back foot and were the single biggest drag on the -0.26% index session.
• Earnings / events: ZIP.AU has a Q3 update scheduled today; consensus commentary flags improving US net transaction margin. Payments peers have printed mixed results through this reporting window, so the read-through to SZL.AU is not mechanical.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: ABS defence-industry value-added + preschool-education statistics
• Westpac-MI Leading Index release (timing TBC)
• No RBA board speakers scheduled; board commentary resumes next week
• US: April preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment at 00:00 AEST Saturday, post-close for the ASX
• Offshore: China Q1 GDP and March activity data already published Wednesday — steel output read-through still filtering into iron-ore flow

What to watch

• Nasdaq-streak durability — a 12-session run is the longest since July 2009, historically rare without a single-day consolidation. The ASX VIX closed Thursday near 13.5, a one-month low, signalling compressed option-implied vol on both sides of the Pacific heading into the Friday session.
• Tech-sector breadth — a +12% weekly S&P/ASX 200 Info Tech print is uncommon without a reversal day. Advance/decline across the sub-index constituents will indicate whether Friday extends the rally or cools it, with WTC.AU and XRO.AU carrying most of the beta.
• Oil-linked tape absorption — how WDS.AU and STO.AU hold up against the 3-4% overnight crude slide is a proxy for local appetite to carry geopolitical-premium exposure into the weekend, particularly with US preliminary sentiment data printing after the ASX close.

Context only — not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.