ASX faces split handover: Wall St records, Brent +2.1%, gold -0.99% into March CPI week

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 (XJO.INDX) Friday close: 8,793.4 Overnight US handover: S&P 500 +0.80%, Nasdaq +1.63%, Brent +2.12%, gold -0.99%

The S&P 500 closed at 7,165.08 on 24 April 2026, up 0.80% to a fresh record on a 23% surge in INTC.US. The Nasdaq Composite +1.63% to 24,836.60, also a record close, lifted by NVDA.US retaking US$5 trillion in market cap. Brent +2.12% to US$101.23 on Strait of Hormuz supply concerns sets up an energy-bid open ahead of Australia's March quarter CPI on 30 April.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,165.08 and the Nasdaq Composite at 24,836.60 on 24 April 2026 — both fresh record highs.

• S&P 500: 7,165.08 (+0.80%, +56.68 pts) — record close
• Nasdaq: 24,836.60 (+1.63%, +398.10 pts) — record close
• Dow: 49,230.71 (-0.16%, -79.59 pts)
• VIX: 18.71 (-3.11%)

Records on both indexes came on a chip-led session extending an 18th straight day of semiconductor gains. INTC.US +23% after a Q1 report carried the stock above its 2000 dot-com peak; NVDA.US retook the US$5 trillion market cap mark on the back of the chip move plus a separately-announced nuclear power supply agreement with OKLO.US. The Dow's -0.16% reflects flow out of industrials and consumer names into mega-cap tech rather than a risk-off impulse — the VIX -3.11% to 18.71 backs that read. Q1 reporting season has so far seen 84% of S&P 500 names beat EPS estimates, with aggregate prints 12.3% above consensus (FactSet).

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

Brent crude rose 2.12% to US$101.23 on 24 April 2026 as Strait of Hormuz supply concerns dominated the session, while gold fell 0.99% to US$4,693.80.

• Gold (Jun 26): US$4,693.80 (-0.99%, -US$47.10)
• Brent (Last Day Financial): US$101.23 (+2.12%, +US$2.10)
• WTI: US$96.11 (+1.81%)
• Copper: US$6.013/lb (-0.23%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7146 (-0.09%)
• Iron ore (SGX May, ref.): ~US$107/t — highest since 30 March

Brent +2.12% caps a week of Strait of Hormuz disruption, with backwardation in the curve flagging spot tightness from obstructed Middle East shipments. Gold -0.99% to US$4,693.80 unwound part of last week's safe-haven bid as the chip rally absorbed the risk-asset bid; NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU open with an approximate 1.0% AUD-translated drag from the bullion print before any AU-specific flow. AUD/USD essentially unchanged at 0.7146 — neutral for USD-earner translation into CSL.AU and CPU.AU. Iron ore at ~US$107/t reflects Chinese steelmakers replenishing feedstock ahead of the 1-5 May May Day holiday.

Key themes for ASX open

The 27 April 2026 ASX cash open faces a tech-positive but commodity-bifurcated handover from the US Friday session.

• Tech: Nasdaq +1.63% and the 18-session semi rally are a constructive read-through for WTC.AU, NXT.AU, TNE.AU and PME.AU; the AU IT sub-index has tracked the SOX with 0.7-0.8 correlation through 2026 to date.
• Energy: Brent +2.12% to US$101.23 and WTI +1.81% to US$96.11 set up WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU for a higher open; the move is sourced from Strait of Hormuz disruption, so the read-through to refiner VEA.AU is asymmetric (input cost up, refining margin pressure).
• Gold: -0.99% to US$4,693.80 with USD essentially flat means a -US$47/oz print drops straight through to AUD-denominated revenue at NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.
• Banks: Dow -0.16% leaves no US bank-sector catalyst for CBA.AU, WBC.AU, NAB.AU and ANZ.AU; AU bank trading this week sits around the 30 April CPI print and the 5 May RBA decision, where rates pricing has 19 bp of tightening implied.
• Mega-cap earnings risk: MSFT.US and GOOGL.US Wed 29 Apr (US after-close), AAPL.US Thu 30 Apr (US after-close). AU sessions trade after each print. AAPL.US has rallied 6% into the report; MSFT.US and GOOGL.US each more than 10%. Apple consensus EPS US$1.65 (+18.2% YoY) on revenue ~US$110 billion (+15.0% YoY).

Economic calendar (this week, AEST)

Australia's March quarter CPI on 30 April 2026 is the dominant week-ahead event, with consensus +4.8% YoY headline and +3.4% YoY trimmed-mean.

• Mon 27 Apr: Quiet domestic session — no Tier-1 AU prints scheduled
• Wed 29 Apr 23:30: US Q1 GDP advance estimate
• Wed 29 Apr (US after-close): MSFT.US, GOOGL.US earnings
• Thu 30 Apr 11:30: Australia March quarter CPI — headline +4.8% YoY (consensus), trimmed-mean +3.4% YoY (first inflation print to fully reflect the Middle East energy shock)
• Thu 30 Apr (US after-close): AAPL.US earnings
• Fri 1 May 22:30: US April nonfarm payrolls

What to watch

The 27 April 2026 session opens with XJO.INDX indicating roughly flat from Friday's 8,793.4 close into a CPI print at week's end.

• The XJO.INDX open: Yahoo pre-open indicative is -0.08% from Friday's 8,793.4 close — essentially flat. A downside break of 8,750 puts the index back at the early-week range low and into the 50-day moving average area; an upside push past 8,820 retraces last week's high.
• Energy versus gold: Brent +2.12% / gold -0.99% on the same overnight session is a stagflation-style print mix — energy outperformance plus rate-cut delay risk through inflation revival. The internal AU dispersion this morning will be more informative than the headline XJO level.
• CPI countdown: AU rates pricing has 19 bp of tightening implied for the 5 May RBA meeting, with approximately 60 bp of hikes expected through the remainder of 2026. Every 0.1% surprise in Thursday's trimmed-mean print compresses or extends that probability and feeds into bank, REIT and consumer-discretionary flow.

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