Hormuz oil shock hits Wall Street as ASX opens defensive

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.1% indicative (^AXJO PRE 8,630.8 vs Friday close 8,640.7); US futures -1.24% / -1.54% Sun pm AEST

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,408.50, down 1.24%, with Nasdaq off 1.54% to 26,225.14 as Brent crude jumped 3.35% to US$109.26 on the still-closed Strait of Hormuz. VIX surged 6.78% to 18.43 and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose ~10 bps to 4.60% after Trump rejected an Iran-easing framework and the Trump-Xi summit closed without policy breakthrough. ASX 200 opens against US futures still selling Sunday evening AEST.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,408.50 (-1.24%)
• Nasdaq: 26,225.14 (-1.54%)
• Dow: 49,526.17 (-1.07%)
• VIX: 18.43 (+6.78%)
• 10-year UST: 4.60% (+10 bps)
• ES futures (Sun pm AEST): 7,432.25 (-1.24%)
• NQ futures (Sun pm AEST): 29,231.75 (-1.54%)

The Dow lost 537 points Friday and every major US index closed in the red. Tech took the heaviest hit (Nasdaq -1.54%) on the combined Treasury-yield spike and the Trump-Xi summit producing no major policy breakthrough. Risk-off was clean — VIX +6.78% to 18.43 is the highest print since early March, and the 10-year at 4.60% is the highest since January 2025 per Wolf Street. US futures kept selling into Sunday evening AEST: ES -1.24%, NQ -1.54% — the risk-off mood is rolling forward, not fading.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Brent: US$109.26 (+3.35%)
• WTI: US$101.02 (+4.23%)
• Gold: US$4,561.90/oz (-2.63%)
• Copper: US$6.295/lb (-4.79%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7148 (-1.04%)

Brent above US$109 is the highest close of the Iran-conflict cycle. The IEA flagged crude and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell ~4 million bpd in March-April and warned the global oil market could stay materially undersupplied through October even if the conflict resolves next month. Gold -2.63% alongside a 6.78% VIX spike says higher US Treasury yields dominated safe-haven flows on Friday — yield-up + gold-down is the classic configuration when rates do the talking. Copper -4.79% is the divergence worth flagging: oil and copper usually move together on growth, and the current split says oil is being driven by Hormuz supply, not synchronous demand strength. AUD/USD at 0.7148 (-1.04%) reflects commodity-currency weakness only partially offset by Brent's lift.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy crude lift: Brent at US$109.26 (+3.35%) and WTI at US$101.02 (+4.23%) — WDS.AU, STO.AU, BPT.AU sit against supply-side oil, not demand-driven
• Gold sector pressure: gold spot -2.63% to US$4,561.90/oz — NST.AU, EVN.AU, NEM.AU open against the lower print
• Copper-exposed names: copper -4.79% — SFR.AU and S32.AU sit in the affected basket; iron-ore-leveraged BHP.AU, FMG.AU, RIO.AU also affected if the China-demand read carries through
• Growth on the defensive: US Nasdaq -1.54% plus 10-year UST +10 bps to 4.60% — XRO.AU and WTC.AU sit in the US tech-sympathy basket
• USD earners — translation effect: AUD/USD at 0.7148 (-1.04%) widens FY26 USD-revenue conversion for CSL.AU, CPU.AU and offshore industrials
• Iron ore data caveat: Yahoo TIO=F printed dayHigh = dayLow = open = 161.91 today, the classic contract-roll artifact — iron ore spot direction is not citable from that source this session

Economic calendar today

• No top-tier AU macro releases scheduled Monday
• Week ahead: RBA-speak watch; US weekly jobless claims Thursday US time; US PMI preliminary Friday US time
• AU Wage Price Index Q2 print scheduled August 19 (not this week)

What to watch

• US futures continue down Sunday evening AEST — ES -1.24%, NQ -1.54% — the weekend roll did not reset risk-off
• Brent vs copper divergence — Brent +3.35% vs copper -4.79% spread says supply-shock oil rather than synchronous demand strength
• VIX at 18.43 (+6.78%) — first print above the recent ~17 ceiling in three weeks
• 10-year UST at 4.60% — highest since January 2025 on war-driven inflation concerns per Wolf Street; growth and duration-sensitive sectors carry the rate move directly
• Hormuz disruption duration — IEA flagged 4 million bpd flow reduction in March-April; the resolution timeline determines whether Brent at US$109+ is structural or transitory

Context only — not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.