ASX 200 set to open higher after Wall Street rally and a 5% oil slide; April jobs data due — 21 May 2026

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +1.0%

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,432.97 (+1.08%)
• Nasdaq: 26,270.36 (+1.54%)
• Dow: 50,009.35 (+1.31%)
• VIX: 17.44 (−3.43%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.31% to close at 50,009.35 on 20 May 2026, clearing the 50,000 mark as crude oil and US Treasury yields fell on optimism that Middle East tensions are easing. President Trump told reporters the US was in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran, a remark that sent Brent and WTI down more than 5% and lifted all three major US benchmarks. The S&P 500 added 1.08% to 7,432.97 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.54% to 26,270.36, while the VIX fell 3.43% to 17.44.

After the close, Nvidia (NVDA.US) reported Q1 revenue of US$81.6bn, up 85% year-on-year, and EPS of US$1.87 against US$1.76 expected, then guided Q2 revenue to US$91bn — a beat on every line. The stock still slipped about 2.5% in after-hours trade to roughly US$218, extending a pattern of falling after seven of its last 10 reports. Data Centre revenue of US$75.25bn (+92%) underlined that the AI capex cycle has not yet rolled over.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,546/oz (+0.78%)
• WTI crude: US$98.26 (−5.66%)
• Brent crude: US$105.02 (−5.63%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe (CFR China): ~US$105/t (near a 2026 high)
• Copper: US$6.33/lb (+2.06%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7155 (+0.62%)

The overnight oil move cuts both ways for the ASX. WTI settled −5.66% at US$98.26 and Brent −5.63% at US$105.02 on the Iran de-escalation headlines, which pressures energy producers WDS.AU and STO.AU but lowers input and freight costs across the rest of the index. Gold held near US$4,546/oz and copper rose 2.06% to US$6.33/lb, while iron ore sat near US$105/t — its highest since January — supporting BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU. The AUD firmed 0.62% to US$0.7155 alongside the overnight equity rally.

Key themes for ASX open

• Banks: Wednesday's 1.26% ASX 200 fall to 8,496.6 was driven by a domestic bond selloff that hit WBC.AU (−2.42%) and ANZ.AU (−2.11%); the drop in US 10-year yields overnight may ease that pressure at the open.
• Energy: WDS.AU rose 0.68% on Wednesday, a move that pre-dates crude's 5.6% overnight drop — that slide post-dates the local close and sets up a softer start for the sector.
• Iron ore majors: BHP.AU (−2.33%), RIO.AU (−1.45%) and FMG.AU (−1.19%) closed lower Wednesday, but iron ore near US$105/t and copper +2.06% point to a steadier open.
• Gold miners: NEM.AU (−4.46%) and EVN.AU (−4.85%) led Wednesday's decline as bond yields rose; gold's hold above US$4,500/oz overnight is a counterweight.
• AI and tech: NXT.AU (−2.27%) and WTC.AU (−0.79%) move with the global AI complex; Nvidia's after-hours dip despite a clean beat may cap local data-centre and software names.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST — ABS Labour Force Survey (April): employment change, unemployment rate, participation and hours worked. The headline jobs print is the RBA's most-watched monthly gauge and the session's main domestic catalyst.

What to watch

• SPI 200 futures rose about 1% overnight to near 8,560 — roughly 0.7% above Wednesday's 8,496.6 cash close — pointing to a higher open that recovers part of the prior session's drop.
• Energy versus the rest of the market: the index is set higher, but WDS.AU and STO.AU carry the overnight crude move that the local close did not capture.
• The 11:30 AEST jobs data can reset RBA rate expectations intraday; a strong print would feed back into the same bond-yield dynamic that pressured banks and gold miners on Wednesday.

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