ASX 200 set to open 0.5% higher as renewed US-Iran strikes send Brent up 3.5% and lift energy

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.5%

The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open about 43 points or 0.5% higher near 8,849 on Monday 13 July 2026, holding Friday's Wall Street gains (S&P 500 +0.42% to 7,575.39) that the SPI banked over the weekend. A weekend escalation in the US-Iran conflict then reset the commodity board: Brent crude jumped 3.51% to US$78.68 and WTI 3.47% to US$73.89 after US strikes on Iranian systems near the Strait of Hormuz, while gold slipped 0.50% to US$4,093. US equity futures now point 0.3% to 0.5% lower, so energy leads the local open and gold miners lag.

Overnight drivers

• Oil: Brent +3.51% to US$78.68, WTI +3.47% to US$73.89. Futures reopened Sunday sharply higher after US forces struck Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and missiles and drones were fired at Gulf states including Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain. That supports the local energy majors WDS.AU and STO.AU, plus coal-exposed WHC.AU, at the open.
• Gold: -0.50% to US$4,093 an ounce as the US dollar firmed (DXY +0.19% to 101.14). A lower bullion price weighs on NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.
• US equity futures: S&P 500 futures -0.32%, Nasdaq 100 futures -0.49%. The Middle East escalation trimmed risk appetite after Friday's cash close, capping the local tech and growth open.
• US 10-year yield: 4.569%, up 3 basis points. The AUD held at US$0.6942, close to flat.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,575.39 (+0.42%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,281.61 (+0.29%)
• Dow Jones: 52,637.01 (+0.29%)
• VIX: 15.03 (-5.11%)

Wall Street closed higher Friday as SK Hynix made its US trading debut, the largest foreign share sale in US history at US$26.5 billion. The South Korean memory-chip maker finished its first Nasdaq session at US$168.01, above its US$149 offer price, and kept the AI memory trade in play. The VIX fell 5.11% to 15.03, and the Dow held above 52,600. Breadth was narrower than the headline gains suggest: the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.49% as gains concentrated in large-cap technology. That Friday close is what the SPI carried into Monday's 0.5% indicated open, before the weekend headlines landed.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,093/oz (-0.50%)
• Brent: US$78.68 (+3.51%)
• WTI: US$73.89 (+3.47%)
• Copper: US$6.25/lb (-0.45%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6942 (flat)

The oil move is the clearest driver into the local open. A 3.5% jump in Brent supports margins for the energy majors, while the lower gold price and a firmer US dollar work against the gold producers. Copper eased 0.45%, leaving the base-metals miners without an offshore push. Iron ore lacked a clean overnight Singapore print, so BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU open without a set-up from the futures screens.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy leads: WDS.AU and STO.AU track the Brent move most directly, and WHC.AU carries the coal exposure.
• Gold miners lag: NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU open against a bullion price down 0.50% and a US dollar up 0.19%.
• Iron-ore majors BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU open without an overnight iron-ore screen to trade off.
• Banks CBA.AU, NAB.AU and the majors face a mild yield backup, with the US 10-year at 4.569%.

Economic calendar today

• No major domestic release is scheduled for Monday.
• The week's local focus falls on the NAB business survey (Tuesday), Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment (Wednesday) and the June labour force report (Thursday).
• China's Q2 GDP is due mid-week, a swing factor for the iron-ore majors.

What to watch

• SPI's 0.5% indicated gain: does it hold once the energy tailwind meets softer US futures at the open?
• Energy strength versus gold-miner weakness, and how far that split drives index breadth.
• Middle East headlines during the local session, given oil's sensitivity to the Strait of Hormuz.

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