ASX 200 set to open 0.85% higher near 8,898 as oil hits a six-week high; June jobs at 11:30am

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.85%

Wall Street slipped on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.57% to 25,690.90 and the S&P 500 off 0.14% to 7,498.96, as large technology names sold ahead of earnings and oil settled at a six-week high on renewed Middle East hostilities. Super Micro Computer SMCI.US jumped 19.84% on new orders topping US$60bn in the fourth quarter, the S&P 500's biggest gainer, while Alphabet GOOGL.US fell about 5% after-hours after lifting 2026 capital-spending guidance to about US$205bn. SPI futures still point to the ASX 200 opening about 0.85% higher (roughly 75 points) from Wednesday's 8,823 close, near 8,898, with energy in focus and June labour force data due at 11:30am AEST.

Overnight drivers

• Oil at a six-week high: Brent crude rose 1.76% to US$95.73 and WTI added 1.58% to US$88.20 on Middle East hostilities, supporting ASX energy names Woodside WDS.AU, Santos STO.AU and Beach Energy BPT.AU into the open.
• Technology earnings caution: Alphabet GOOGL.US closed down 1.46% then lost about 5% after-hours on its US$205bn capital-spending guide; Tesla TSLA.US eased 1.30% then slipped about 3% after-hours after second-quarter earnings fell roughly 18% year-on-year. Meta META.US fell 2.58% and Microsoft MSFT.US 1.86%.
• AI hardware split from platforms: Nvidia NVDA.US gained 2.30% and Super Micro SMCI.US surged 19.84%, so server and chip names rose while the software platforms fell.
• US yields firmer: the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 3 basis points to 4.657% as higher oil lifted inflation expectations, a mild drag for rate-sensitive sectors and small caps.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,498.96 (-0.14%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,690.90 (-0.57%)
• Dow Jones: 52,218.58 (-0.01%)
• VIX: 16.64 (-2.40%)

The Dow finished flat while the Nasdaq lagged, and breadth was thin: on the Nasdaq, 3,103 stocks fell against 1,665 that rose, a 1.86-to-one decline ratio, with 104 new lows versus 45 new highs. The VIX touched 19.49 intraday before settling back to 16.64, below Tuesday's close, as the session's early caution faded. The Russell 2000 fell 0.92%, the clearest sign that higher oil and firmer yields pressured smaller, rate-sensitive companies. Alphabet and Tesla reported after the bell; US S&P 500 futures then slipped 0.19% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.31% early Thursday.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Brent crude: US$95.73 (+1.76%)
• WTI crude: US$88.20 (+1.58%)
• Gold: US$4,126.90/oz (-0.60%)
• Copper: US$6.486/lb (-0.12%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6991 (-0.18%)

Energy is the clean positive for the local open. Gold eased 0.60% to US$4,126.90 after recovering from an intraday low near US$4,075, a modest negative for Newmont NEM.AU and Northern Star NST.AU. Copper at US$6.486/lb was little changed, leaving iron-ore majors to trade on Chinese steel demand rather than an overnight metals move. The Australian dollar slipped to 0.6991 from 0.7003, holding near a four-week high, with higher oil prices feeding a more hawkish reading of the RBA ahead of its 11 August meeting.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy leadership: with Brent at US$95.73, Woodside WDS.AU and Santos STO.AU are the most direct beneficiaries of the overnight oil move, alongside Beach Energy BPT.AU.
• Gold eases off its low: gold at US$4,126.90 is down 0.60% on the session but has recovered from near US$4,075, leaving Northern Star NST.AU and Newmont NEM.AU with a mild negative lead.
• Iron-ore majors in focus: BHP.AU, Rio Tinto RIO.AU and Fortescue FMG.AU trade on Chinese steel demand; copper was flat overnight and iron ore had no clean overnight print.
• Local tech sentiment: the US software selling gives WiseTech WTC.AU and Xero XRO.AU a softer sentiment lead, though the ASX carries only a small technology weight, which is why the local futures held firm.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30am AEST: June labour force report. Consensus is for about 15,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%, following April's revised 40,700-job fall.

What to watch

• The 11:30am jobs print is the session's pivot: a soft result, with unemployment rising toward 4.6%, would argue the RBA has tightened enough, while a firm number keeps an 11 August move live alongside next Wednesday's Q2 CPI.
• Whether energy strength outweighs the soft US technology lead: the SPI's 0.85% implied gain rests on oil and the banks, not the large-cap tech that dragged Wall Street after hours.

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