ASX 200 Set to Open 0.75% Lower as Brent Tops US$100 and AI Spending Guidance Hits Wall Street

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.75%

The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,408.3 on 23 July 2026 as Brent crude jumped 6.88% to US$100.54 following Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, while Alphabet and Tesla became the first of the largest US technology reporters to disappoint on spending plans. Tesla TSLA.US fell 14.52% to US$319.69 after posting negative free cash flow for the first time in more than two years, with capital expenditure up 142% year on year to US$5.79 billion. SPI futures point to the ASX 200 opening 65 points or 0.75% lower near 8,774, which would erase Thursday's 16 point gain and more.

Overnight drivers

• Red Sea supply shock: Brent +6.88% to US$100.54, its first settle above US$100 since May, and WTI +6.21% to US$92.22. Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck two Saudi tankers after declaring a naval blockade on the kingdom.
• Alphabet capital expenditure guidance: GOOGL.US -7.13% to US$317.69 after lifting FY26 capital expenditure guidance to a range of US$195 billion to US$205 billion, up from the US$180 billion to US$190 billion range given three months earlier. Revenue rose 24% to US$119.80 billion and cloud revenue 82% to US$24.8 billion, both ahead of consensus.
• Tesla cash burn: TSLA.US -14.52%, its worst session since March 2025. Revenue rose 26% but operating income fell 57%, and the company guided to more than US$25 billion of capital expenditure this year.
• Yields and the US dollar: the US 10 year Treasury yield rose 4.6 basis points to 4.703% and the US dollar index 0.29% to 101.44. Gold fell 2.28% to US$4,052.30 and silver 3.54% to US$57.90 in the same session.
• Defence and energy bid: LMT.US +10.54% and RTX.US +7.33% led the S&P 500, with XOM.US +1.58%, COP.US +1.19% and CVX.US +0.75% also higher.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,408.30 (-1.21%)
• Nasdaq: 25,137.69 (-2.15%)
• Dow: 51,711.65 (-0.97%)
• VIX: 18.70 (+12.38%)

Tesla and Alphabet were the two largest single drags on the S&P 500. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.54%, far less than the Nasdaq's 2.15%, so the selling concentrated in the largest index weights: AMZN.US -4.57%, META.US -3.36%, MSFT.US -2.24%, NVDA.US -1.56% and AAPL.US -1.30%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.67%, a smaller loss than the benchmark.

Commodities and FX

• Brent: US$100.54 (+6.88%)
• WTI: US$92.22 (+6.21%)
• Gold: US$4,052.30/oz (-2.28%)
• Silver: US$57.90/oz (-3.54%)
• Copper: US$6.334/lb (-1.81%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6970 (-0.32%)

Gold fell 2.28% in a session when oil rose 6.88%. With the US 10 year at 4.703% and the dollar index up 0.29%, real yields set the bullion price, not safe haven demand. The ASX gold sub-index added 1.3% on Thursday and opens against that lower spot. Iron ore held its ground: SGX futures added 0.6% to US$98.20 per tonne in Asian trade on Thursday, so BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU carry no equivalent overnight drag.

Local setup after Thursday's jobs print

The ASX 200 closed Thursday at 8,839.0, up 16.0 points or 0.18%, after trading up as much as 1.1% before the 11:30am AEST employment release. June employment rose 76,300 against a 15,200 forecast, unemployment held at 4.4%, and Australian 10 year bond yields pushed to 4.97%. The implied probability of an August RBA hike moved to 32% from 22%, and the chance of a fourth increase by year end to 94% from 79%.

That repricing hit long-duration local names on Thursday. Information technology fell 3.32% as WTC.AU lost 6.97%, XRO.AU 5.01% and TNE.AU 3.65%, while health care fell 1.43% with CSL.AU down 1.86%. Alphabet reported after the ASX close, so those sectors open with a second reason to sell that Thursday's session never priced.

Key themes for the ASX open

• WDS.AU, STO.AU, KAR.AU, BPT.AU and WHC.AU all closed Thursday before Brent's 6.88% move. Newcastle coal futures added 1.2% to US$137.60 per tonne on Thursday and have risen 9.6% since the latest Middle East escalation began.
• Gold miners NST.AU, EVN.AU, RRL.AU and GMD.AU closed Thursday between 0.66% and 1.92% higher, ahead of bullion's 2.28% fall.
• QAN.AU takes jet fuel as a direct cost input, with Brent at US$100.54.
• Technology carries two inputs into the open: domestic yields at 4.97% and Alphabet's spending guidance, both weighing on long-duration valuations.
• GDG.AU closed Thursday at $4.58, up 37.13%, after reporting FY26 funds under management of $46.4 billion, a 36% increase.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

• 09:00 AEST: Australia July flash PMI (June manufacturing 51.5, services 50.5)
• 23:45 AEST: United States July flash PMI (manufacturing 54.5 forecast, services 51.4 forecast)
• This morning AEST: NEM.US quarterly update

What to watch

• Breadth on Thursday was narrower than the index close implied: ASX 300 advancers lagged decliners 134 to 140 on a positive index day.
• June quarter CPI lands next week and sets August RBA pricing. Trimmed mean inflation above the RBA's 3.8% forecast is the threshold that matters.
• Brent has risen roughly 30% across July, which flows into the inflation data the RBA and the Federal Reserve both read.

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