ASX 200 to open 0.45% lower on 28 July 2026 as US chip selling offsets Brent's 9.25% slide

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.45%

SPI 200 futures point the S&P/ASX 200 to open 39 points or 0.45% lower on 28 July 2026, handing back part of Monday's 1.39% close at 8,894.0 after US chip stocks reversed the technology leg that led that rally. SanDisk SNDK.US fell 11.02% to US$1,278.23 on memory pricing weakness and NVDA.US lost 4.99% to US$196.51. Brent settled 9.25% lower at US$87.83 once Washington and Tehran paused strikes and restarted talks, the same move that powered Monday's local surge and that now leaves energy names facing a second session of selling.

Overnight drivers

• Nasdaq -0.18% to 24,932.08: SNDK.US -11.02%, AMD.US -5.17%, NVDA.US -4.99% and MU.US -2.25% pulled the index lower while the rest of the US market rose. WTC.AU and XRO.AU closed Monday 7.00% and 6.02% higher as local technology led the ASX 200 rebound, with no overnight follow-through from their US peers.
• Brent -9.25% to US$87.83: the United States and Iran paused attacks and resumed negotiations, and several OPEC+ members pressed to unwind voluntary output cuts faster. WDS.AU, STO.AU, BPT.AU and KAR.AU fell 2.93%, 3.64%, 3.87% and 7.82% on Monday.
• Dow +0.51% to 52,210.08: large-cap software rose against the semiconductor decline, led by GOOGL.US +2.13%, MSFT.US +1.94% and AAPL.US +1.17%. Local healthcare and staples names track that defensive bid, and CSL.AU closed Monday up 1.90%.
• US 10-year Treasury yield 4.641%, down 3.8 basis points: lower yields give mild support to CBA.AU, NAB.AU, ANZ.AU and WBC.AU ahead of Wednesday's inflation print.

Overnight Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,210.08 on 27 July 2026, up 0.51%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.18% to 24,932.08 in the same session.

• S&P 500: 7,413.18 (+0.02%)
• Nasdaq: 24,932.08 (-0.18%)
• Dow: 52,210.08 (+0.51%)
• VIX: 18.67 (+0.48%)

Energy and semiconductors fell while consumer staples and communication services rose, and the Russell 2000 added 0.62% to 2,948.04. SNDK.US -11.02% was the steepest fall among large US technology names, with memory pricing the stated cause, and AMD.US -5.17% and NVDA.US -4.99% extended the semiconductor decline. Energy followed crude down: COP.US fell 3.89%, CVX.US 2.46%, SLB.US 1.70% and XOM.US 1.38%. The S&P 500 has now closed lower for two consecutive weeks.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

Brent crude settled at US$87.83 a barrel on 27 July 2026, down 9.25%, after the United States and Iran paused strikes and restarted negotiations.

• Gold: US$4,076.60/oz (+0.22%)
• Brent: US$87.83 (-9.25%)
• WTI: US$81.98 (-8.21%)
• Copper: US$6.392/lb (+1.14%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$98.35/t (-0.07%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6991 (+0.11%)

Crude has fallen from US$100.69 on 23 July to US$87.83 across three sessions, a 12.8% decline that unwinds the Middle East supply premium built earlier in the month. Copper rose 1.14% to US$6.392 a pound and gold 0.22% to US$4,076.60 an ounce, the two inputs behind Monday's mining gains. Iron ore sits below US$100 a tonne at US$98.35 for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU. The Australian dollar bought 69.91 US cents, up 0.11%, with the US dollar index at 101.514.

Key themes for ASX open

• WTC.AU +7.00% and XRO.AU +6.02% on Monday made technology the strongest local sector. US semiconductors fell overnight instead, with NVDA.US -4.99% and AMD.US -5.17%.
• WDS.AU -2.93%, STO.AU -3.64%, BPT.AU -3.87% and KAR.AU -7.82% already repriced to Monday's oil move, and Brent settled lower again overnight at US$87.83.
• CMM.AU +15.13% to $13.70 was Monday's largest ASX 200 gain, after the company lifted group ore reserves 33% to 5.24 million ounces and guided to more than 400,000 ounces a year within 2.5 years of Mt Gibson starting.
• NST.AU +2.16%, EVN.AU +1.95% and GMD.AU +4.77% closed higher with gold at US$4,076.60 an ounce, which added 0.22% overnight.
• BHP.AU +2.12%, RIO.AU +2.24% and S32.AU +0.22% closed higher on Monday, with copper adding 1.14% overnight and iron ore at US$98.35 a tonne.

Economic calendar today

• Tuesday 28 July: no major Australian data release is scheduled.
• Tuesday 28 July (Washington): the FOMC begins its two-day meeting.
• 11:30 AEST Wednesday 29 July: the ABS releases the June quarter Consumer Price Index.
• 04:00 AEST Thursday 30 July: the FOMC rate decision, with economists polled by FactSet expecting a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, a fifth consecutive meeting without a change. The July meeting carries no Summary of Economic Projections.

What to watch

• Advancers beat decliners 232 to 52 in the S&P/ASX 300 on Monday. Today's open tests how much of that breadth came from the oil move alone.
• Energy names face crude for a second session, with Brent 12.8% lower across three sessions and WTI at US$81.98.
• The June quarter CPI on Wednesday is the week's main domestic release, landing 16 hours before the FOMC decision.

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