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ASX 200 points to a 0.9% rebound after Microsoft's biggest day since 2008

SPI 200 futures settled up 77 points as the Nasdaq rose 2.78%, with gold and copper higher and iron ore still below US$100 a tonne.

Bullish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,968-0.78%
S&P 5007,438+1.66%
NASDAQ25,122+2.78%
VIX17.09-17.28%
SPI_F9,013+0.86%

ASX 200 points to a 0.9% rebound after Microsoft's biggest day since 2008

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.86%

SPI 200 futures settled at 9,012.5 on Friday morning, up 77 points or 0.86%, after the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.78% to 25,122.18 on a technology-led rebound. MSFT.US gained 15.51% to US$451.10 after its Azure division cleared US$100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, the stock's largest single-session move since 2008. The S&P/ASX 200 finished Thursday at 8,967.70, down 0.78%, so the futures gap recovers most of that loss before the local bell.

Overnight drivers

  • MSFT.US +15.51% to US$451.10 on the Azure revenue milestone. The S&P 500 technology sector added close to 5%, the best of the index's 11 sectors. Australian enterprise software already moved on Thursday: WTC.AU closed at $37.89, up 6.67%, XRO.AU at $71.48, up 1.43%, and TNE.AU at $30.99, up 1.11%.
  • MU.US +18.36% to US$874.66, with AMD.US up 13.00%, INTC.US up 11.30% and TSM.US up 7.64%. Memory pricing and AI server demand drove all four. NXT.AU carries the local data-centre exposure to that same spending cycle and closed Thursday at $12.79, down 2.07%.
  • AMZN.US rose 3.90% in the session and added more than 9% after the bell. AWS revenue grew 37% year on year against expectations near 31%, its fastest in 18 quarters.
  • META.US -7.95% to US$539.03 on an earnings miss, and AAPL.US fell 1.41% before dropping a further 3% to 4% in extended trade as Services and Greater China revenue came in short. Two of the five largest US technology names fell on the day the sector gained 5%.
  • US 10-year yield 4.679%, up 5.7 basis points, with the 30-year above 5.20% and near multi-decade highs. Rate-sensitive sectors sat out the rally while technology carried it.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,437.63 (+1.66%)
  • Nasdaq: 25,122.18 (+2.78%)
  • Dow: 52,208.06 (+1.19%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,946.10 (+1.37%)
  • VIX: 17.09 (-17.28%)

The Nasdaq ended a six-day losing streak and the VIX fell 17.28% to 17.09. The move came one session after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and equities sold off, and the earnings calendar rather than the rate outlook supplied the catalyst. The Russell 2000 rose 1.37%, so small caps joined in. Long bonds did not: the 30-year yield pushed above 5.20% on the same day.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,107.91/oz (+1.03%)
  • Brent: US$89.45 (-1.42%)
  • Copper: US$6.47/lb (+3.07%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: US$98.25/t (-0.02%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7031 (+1.0%)

The US dollar index fell 0.82% to 99.969, and metals moved against it: gold, silver at US$59.01 and copper all closed higher. Copper's 3.07% gain matters most for the diversified miners. Iron ore did not join, holding at US$98.25 a tonne and below the US$100 mark, which limits how much of today's rebound BHP.AU and FMG.AU can capture.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Technology and data centres: WTC.AU, XRO.AU, TNE.AU and NXT.AU face the most direct pull from a 5% move in the US technology sector.
  • Gold miners: NST.AU closed Thursday at $20.02, down 3.29%, and EVN.AU at $11.06, down 3.07%, both into a gold price that then rose 1.03% overnight.
  • Copper and diversifieds: RIO.AU rose 1.83% to $168.41 on Thursday while BHP.AU fell 1.71% to $59.15. Copper at US$6.47/lb and iron ore at US$98.25/t pull those two names in different directions today.
  • USD earners: CSL.AU at $127.93, RMD.AU at $30.25 and JHX.AU at $37.27 all translate US dollar revenue at an AUD roughly 1% stronger than yesterday.
  • Banks: CBA.AU eased 0.23% to $178.25 and NAB.AU rose 0.85% to $41.55 on Thursday, leaving the sector flat into a session where long US yields moved higher.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEST: Australian Bureau of Statistics producer price indexes, June quarter
  • 11:30 AEST: China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for July

What to watch

  • 9,038.6 was Thursday's open and also its high. The index never traded above the opening print, fell to 8,951.3 and closed at 8,967.70. Whether today's gap holds past the morning auction is the cleaner signal than the gap itself.
  • China PMI at 11:30 AEST lands with iron ore at US$98.25 a tonne and copper up 3.07% overnight, so Australia's two largest resource inputs go into the print pointing opposite ways.
  • Month end falls today, which can distort late-session volume and index-weight flows independently of the earnings news driving the open.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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