ASX 200 set to open 41 points higher as gold settles at a three-month high and oil rises a sixth day

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.45%

SPI futures closed 41 points or 0.45% above Friday's 9,058.9 close on the S&P/ASX 200, pointing to an open near 9,100 after gold settled at a three-month high of US$4,680.60 an ounce and Wall Street reversed part of a yield-driven week. Goldman Sachs GS.US rose 3.73% and delivered roughly 225 of the Dow's 517.80 point gain by itself. Friday's Nasdaq gain ended a five-session losing streak, and the S&P 500 still finished the week 1.43% lower.

Overnight drivers

• Gold at a three-month high: gold futures settled at US$4,680.60 an ounce, up 2.4% on Friday, with the US dollar index down 0.83% across the week. NEM.US gained 3.09% and the GDX.US miner basket 2.98%. The ASX gold sub-index rose 12.07% last week, so NST.AU, EVN.AU, GMD.AU and RRL.AU open with the metal at its best level since May.
• Oil settled higher a sixth straight session: Brent finished at US$94.39 a barrel, up 0.65% on Friday and 6.4% across the week, after the US President threatened sanctions on Iran's trading partners. Ship tracker Kpler counted seven commodity vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, half Wednesday's tally. WDS.AU and STO.AU open against that supply picture, and the new US measures take effect today.
• Copper and uranium: SCCO.US rose 8.69%, FCX.US 7.64% and UEC.US 14.44% on Friday. Copper futures sit at US$6.587 a pound, with LME copper at US$14,041 a tonne. BHP.AU, RIO.AU and S32.AU take the copper signal, PDN.AU, BOE.AU and DYL.AU the uranium one.
• Long-end yields held their highs: the US 10-year settled at 4.738%, about 4 basis points higher, and the 30-year held near a 20-year high. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government could raise Treasury repurchases further after Wednesday's surprise decision to double buybacks. That is the input that set last week's direction and nothing over the weekend changed it.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,674.37 (+0.43%)
• Nasdaq: 26,180.46 (+0.43%)
• Dow: 53,277.01 (+0.98%)
• VIX: 15.13 (-5.50%)

The Dow more than doubled the other two indices because brokers led it: GS.US +3.73% and MS.US +3.25%. The Russell 2000 added 0.85%. Utilities were the weakest sector, XLU.US down 2.28%. Bitcoin rose 7.48% to US$78,164 and finished its best week in two years, lifting HOOD.US 13.70%. European cash closed firmer: DAX +0.59%, FTSE 100 +0.64%, CAC 40 +0.37%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,680.60/oz (+2.4%)
• Brent: US$94.39/bbl (+0.65%)
• WTI: US$87.06/bbl (+0.25%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$96.10/t (+0.5%)
• Copper: US$6.587/lb
• AUD/USD: 0.7173 (+0.84%)

The Australian dollar posted its highest weekly close in three months at 71.73 US cents, up 1.57% across the week, and that same US dollar slide is the mechanism behind gold's move. A stronger local currency cuts the Australian dollar value of offshore earnings for CSL.AU, which reports in US dollars. Iron ore added 0.5% to US$96.10 a tonne, the smallest move of the four.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Gold, copper and uranium all settled higher on Friday while iron ore added 0.5%, so the gap sits in three sectors and not across the index.
• Financials fell 5.11% last week and CBA.AU dropped 5.60%, after a second week of trading updates pointed to weaker mortgage demand under the federal budget's housing tax changes. Friday's US broker strength does not speak to that.
• Health care is coming off a 9.21% weekly gain built on CSL.AU +23.30%, though PME.AU handed back 6.99% on Friday.
• PLS.AU closed 4.97% higher on Friday at $5.07 into this morning's FY26 result, the first of four lithium and resources prints due this week.

Today's calendar (AEST)

• Already reported: PLS.AU posted FY26 net profit of $526 million against a loss of almost $200 million a year earlier, revenue up 150% to close to $2 billion on realised prices 120% higher, and a 5 cent final dividend after skipping the payment last year.
• Also out: REH.AU posted full-year profit down 2.8% to $308 million on revenue up 7% to $9.4 billion, with the fully franked full-year dividend lifted to 18.84 cents.
• Through the session: EDV.AU files audited full-year accounts, after the 5 August preliminary release carried a $372 million pre-tax writedown and an 8.7% fall in underlying EBIT to $845 million. BEN.AU reports FY26 with a 10:00am briefing, alongside NHF.AU, ALD.AU, MVF.AU and VNT.AU.
• No domestic data release today. The new US economic measures against Iran take effect, following the expiry of the 60-day crude exemption on 21 August.

The rest of the week

• Tuesday 11:30am: RBA minutes from the 11 August meeting, which held the cash rate at 4.35%. The market ended last week pricing 4 basis points of tightening for September and 15 basis points by year end.
• Wednesday 11:30am: July monthly CPI. Headline inflation eased to 3.8% in the year to June and the trimmed mean sat at 3.6%.
• Wednesday 10:30pm: US July core PCE and the second estimate of Q2 GDP.
• Thursday morning: NVDA.US reports second-quarter numbers after Wednesday's US close.
• Friday: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole. The symposium runs 27 to 29 August on a payments and financial innovation theme.

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