ASX morning brief, 9 September 2026: Dow falls 628 points as Amgen drops 10%, Brent near US$100

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.2%

The Dow closed at 52,786.07 on 8 September 2026, down 628 points or 1.18%, and its worst component set the size of the fall: AMGN.US dropped 10.08% to US$393.17 after Novartis reported that pelacarsen failed to cut cardiovascular events in a Phase III trial. NVS.US itself lost 13.93% and BNTX.US 4.92%, while the S&P 500 gave up 0.58% to 7,673.52 and the Nasdaq only 0.32% to 26,421.41 as INTC.US rose 9.05% and AMD.US 5.90%. Brent settled 1.61% higher at US$99.50, a six week high, and the US 10 year yield rose 2.2 basis points to 4.806%, both landing on a local market that closed at a six week low yesterday.

Overnight drivers

• Lp(a) drug class repriced: NVS.US -13.93%, AMGN.US -10.08%, BNTX.US -4.92%. Novartis said pelacarsen lowered lipoprotein(a) but did not reduce cardiovascular death, heart attack or stroke against placebo, and investors marked down Amgen's competing olpasiran on the same logic. BMO Capital Markets cut both AMGN.US and BNTX.US to Market Perform the same day. No ASX listed name is in that trial, so the local input is sector sentiment only: CSL.AU rose 0.94% yesterday, COH.AU fell 0.53%, RMD.AU added 0.06%.
• Brent at a six week high: BZ=F +1.61% to US$99.50, WTI +1.40% to US$94.33, after Iran said an Oman brokered safe passage arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz was close to completion while warning that shipping remains at risk. Local energy closed before that print: WDS.AU -0.09%, STO.AU +0.72%, ORG.AU +0.89%.
• Yields higher: US 10 year 4.806%, up 2.2 basis points, and VIX 15.72, up 2.75%. Westpac became the last of the big four to forecast an RBA hike yesterday, chief economist Luci Ellis calling +25 bp to 4.60% in November the base case. Bank shares fell the same session: ANZ.AU -2.61%, CBA.AU -1.76%, NAB.AU -1.45%, WBC.AU -1.26%.
• Semiconductors higher: INTC.US +9.05% on a supply chain report that it will raise PC processor prices about 10% in early October, plus a Northland Securities upgrade to Outperform. AMD.US +5.90%, AVGO.US +2.98%, against NVDA.US -2.01% and MU.US -1.61%. AU technology enters the session from WTC.AU -2.79% and XRO.AU -2.61%, after the local sector fell 2% yesterday.
• Gold lower with the dollar: GC=F -0.93% to US$4,397.90 as real yields rose, even with the US dollar index 0.34% lower at 98.836. NST.AU closed +0.13% and EVN.AU -1.68% yesterday.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,673.52 (-0.58%)
• Nasdaq: 26,421.41 (-0.32%)
• Dow: 52,786.07 (-1.18%)
• Russell 2000: 2,960.20 (-0.52%)
• VIX: 15.72 (+2.75%)

The Dow and the Nasdaq finished 86 basis points apart. AMGN.US -10.08% sits in the Dow and not in the Nasdaq, and INTC.US +9.05%, AMD.US +5.90% and AVGO.US +2.98% kept the Nasdaq inside a third of a percent of flat. Health care sold beyond Amgen: JNJ.US -2.22%, MRK.US -1.24%. Energy rose, XOM.US +0.75% and CVX.US +0.58%. Futures have not moved since the close: ES=F -0.02%, NQ=F -0.05%.

Commodities and FX (AU relevant)

• Gold: US$4,397.90/oz (-0.93%)
• Brent: US$99.50 (+1.61%)
• WTI: US$94.33 (+1.40%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China: US$101.10/t (from US$100.60/t)
• Copper: US$6.772/lb (-0.75%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7221 (+0.02%)

Brent at US$99.50 reaches the local index twice. WDS.AU, STO.AU and ORG.AU price off it, and the fuel bill behind it is one of the two reasons Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment fell 5.2% to 84.4 yesterday, the other being the rate hike now forecast by all four major banks. Iron ore moved 50 US cents to US$101.10/t, and Bloomberg reported that China Mineral Resources Group has told some steel mills to stop discussing Pilbara Blend purchases with RIO.AU while annual contract talks run. China accounted for close to 60% of Rio's revenue last year, and CMRG ran the same tactic on BHP.AU and FMG.AU over the past year. RIO.AU closed 0.77% lower yesterday, BHP.AU 0.60% lower and FMG.AU 1.35% lower.

Key themes for ASX open

• CSL.AU, COH.AU and RMD.AU open against a US biopharma sector that fell on a trial run by Novartis. CSL.AU closed 0.94% higher yesterday, the best print of the 30 ASX large caps we checked.
• WDS.AU, STO.AU and ORG.AU open on a US$99.50 Brent print, the highest in six weeks.
• ANZ.AU fell 2.61% yesterday, the worst of the big four, with all four major bank economists now forecasting a 4.60% cash rate by November.
• RIO.AU carries the CMRG purchasing pause into today with spot iron ore at US$101.10/t.
• WTC.AU -2.79% and XRO.AU -2.61% yesterday, in a local technology sector that fell 2% against a Nasdaq down 0.32% overnight.

Economic calendar today

• No ABS or RBA release is scheduled for Wednesday 9 September in Australia.
• Thu 11:00 AEST: Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflation Expectations, September, consensus 5.1%
• Fri 22:30 AEST: US August CPI, the last inflation print before the September FOMC meeting

What to watch

• Breadth after a six week low: the ASX 200 fell 1.00% to 8,920.8 yesterday on a session low of 8,914.5, and SPI futures were about 0.2% higher at 7:00 AEST.
• The AU VIX closed at 11.966, up 13.29%, against a US VIX that moved 2.75% to 15.72.
• Whether the Lp(a) selling stays inside US biopharma or reaches CSL.AU, COH.AU and RMD.AU.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.