ASX 200 futures point 0.2% higher to 8,747 as Nasdaq futures fall 1.17% on calls to slow AI and Brent rises 3% after Oman postpones the Hormuz meeting

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.2%

S&P/ASX 200 futures settled 18 points or 0.2% higher at 8,747 ahead of the 14 September 2026 open, following Friday's 0.86% rise in the S&P 500 to 7,656.98 after August CPI matched the 3.4% forecast; since then US index futures have reopened lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures -1.17% at 29,043 and S&P 500 futures -0.59% at 7,614 by 08:35 AEST, after Anthropic's Dario Amodei called for slowing AI capability gains and OpenAI's Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 listing. HPE.US rose 12.44% and DELL.US 11.98% on Friday after Oracle named both as AI rack suppliers on US$90 billion to US$95 billion of fiscal 2027 capital spending, while Brent crude is 3.00% higher at US$107.75 a barrel after Oman postponed Monday's meeting between Iran and Gulf states on Strait of Hormuz shipping and Iranian state media reported a cargo ship struck off Qeshm Island. The FOMC decides at 04:00 AEST on Thursday with rate futures pricing an 85% to 90% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and the US 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.975%.

Overnight drivers

• US index futures: Nasdaq 100 futures -1.17% at 29,043, S&P 500 futures -0.59% at 7,614 and Dow futures -0.41% at 52,368 by 08:35 AEST, the first prints since the 08:00 AEST reopen (18:00 Sunday in New York). Dario Amodei wrote on Saturday that "we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models" and offered outside evaluators employee-level access to Anthropic. Sam Altman posted "I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier" and told Fortune a listing now would be "ill-advised", adding "not 2026"; Elon Musk replied "Dario is right". Information Technology lost 8.57% on the ASX last week, with WTC.AU -13.27% and XRO.AU -15.52%.
• Crude: Brent +3.00% to US$107.75 and WTI +2.78% to US$102.83 at 08:35 AEST, reversing Friday's 2.81% Brent fall to US$104.61. Oman's foreign minister postponed Monday's meeting of Iran and Gulf states on an Omani plan for a temporary Hormuz shipping lane "in the interests of consensus", and Iranian state media reported a cargo ship struck off Qeshm Island early on Sunday with one person killed and four wounded. Energy (+2.39%) was the only ASX sector to gain more than 1% last week; WDS.AU, STO.AU, KAR.AU and BPT.AU are the producers, and QAN.AU carries the fuel cost.
• Friday's Wall Street rebound: S&P 500 +0.86%, its first gain in five sessions, after August CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% year on year, both in line with forecasts, and core rose 0.3%. The VIX fell 11.21% to 15.84. XLK.US +1.32% and SMH.US +1.47% led: AAPL.US +1.75%, AMD.US +2.49%, TSM.US +1.22%, while NVDA.US closed flat at -0.03% and ORCL.US fell 1.74% to US$150.28. That session set the 8,747 SPI settle.
• Rates into the FOMC: US 10-year 4.975% (+3 bp on Friday), US 2-year above 4.6%, its highest since July 2024, and Australia's 10-year at 5.36% after the 3-year passed 5% on Friday. Fed funds sit at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Bank of England decides Thursday at 21:00 AEST and the Bank of Japan on Friday, where a 25 basis point rise to 1.25% is about 90% priced. Shaw and Partners rated CBA.AU a sell on Monday, citing a premium to domestic peers, and NXT.AU a buy on data-centre contract demand.

Overnight Wall Street

Friday 11 September close:

• S&P 500: 7,656.98 (+0.86%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,333.04 (+0.96%)
• Dow Jones: 52,573.29 (+0.98%)
• Russell 2000: 2,903.94 (+0.45%)
• VIX: 15.84 (-11.21%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98 on 11 September 2026, up 0.86%, ending a four-session decline, after August CPI printed 3.4% year on year and WTI settled 2.4% lower at US$100.05. Nine of 11 sectors rose: XLK.US +1.32%, XLI.US +1.07%, XLF.US +0.67%, XLE.US +0.32%; XLV.US -0.18% and XLU.US -0.31% were the only two lower. HPE.US +12.44% to US$62.09 and DELL.US +11.98% to US$567.29 after Oracle's CFO named both as AI rack vendors on US$90 billion to US$95 billion of fiscal 2027 capex. GOOGL.US +1.77%, AMZN.US +1.94%, MSFT.US +0.65% and META.US +0.57% all rose. SMR.US -15.67% after UBS cut it to sell, OKLO.US -9.18% and WDC.US -2.98%. ALB.US -3.43% and SQM.US -3.60% fell with lithium. For the week the S&P 500 lost 0.80%, the Nasdaq 0.66% and the Dow 1.57%.

US index futures reopened at 08:00 AEST on Monday below Friday's cash close: S&P 500 futures -0.59% at 7,614, Nasdaq 100 futures -1.17% at 29,043, Dow futures -0.41% at 52,368. Bloomberg reported on Saturday that OpenAI's listing will not happen until 2027.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

Prices at 08:35 AEST unless stated.

• Brent: US$107.75 (+3.00%); Friday settle US$104.61 (-2.81%)
• WTI: US$102.83 (+2.78%)
• Gold, December futures: US$4,369.60/oz (-0.89%)
• Copper: US$6.514/lb (-0.51%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$96.70/t (-1.5%), ABC 08:30 update
• AUD/USD: 0.7160 (+0.05%)
• US Dollar Index: 99.13 (+0.01%)

Gold, copper and iron ore are lower while crude is higher, so Materials opens against three falling inputs after its 3.63% fall on Friday and 3.91% for the week. BHP.AU closed Friday at $60.87, down 4.05%; its New York ADR fell a further 0.23% on Friday while RIO.US rose 0.57%. NEM.US +0.53% and GDX.US +1.11% closed higher on Friday before the December gold contract fell to US$4,369.60 overnight; the All Ordinaries Gold index lost 5.59% last week, with NST.AU -2.04%, EVN.AU -2.44% and GMD.AU -3.29% on Friday alone. AUD/USD at 0.7160 is up 0.05%, so CSL.AU, RMD.AU and COH.AU open without a currency move either way.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: Brent +3.00% to US$107.75 and WTI +2.78% to US$102.83 since the reopen. WDS.AU +3.24%, STO.AU +4.63%, KAR.AU +5.48% and NHC.AU +3.77% led the sector's 2.39% gain last week, and Friday's 2.81% Brent fall is now reversed.
• Technology: Nasdaq 100 futures -1.17% against Friday's +0.96% cash close. Information Technology fell 8.57% last week; WTC.AU, XRO.AU and TNE.AU lost 13.27%, 15.52% and 8.97%. NXT.AU carries a Shaw and Partners buy rating into the AI headlines.
• Rate-sensitives: Australia's 10-year at 5.36% and the 3-year above 5%. IAG.AU +4.23%, SUN.AU +3.65% and NAB.AU +2.65% rose on Friday on the higher curve; GMG.AU fell 0.92%. CBA.AU opens with a Shaw and Partners sell rating.
• Materials: iron ore -1.5% to US$96.70/t, copper -0.51%, gold -0.89%. BHP.AU -4.05%, RIO.AU -3.54% and FMG.AU -3.03% on Friday; PLS.AU -7.38% and LTR.AU -8.55% the same day, before ALB.US -3.43% and SQM.US -3.60% in New York.
• Ex-dividend today: CCP.AU, CNU.AU, KLS.AU and VGN.AU (7.6 cents fully franked, paid 15 October).
• Index changes: SRL.AU (+45.05% last week) joins the S&P/ASX 200 after Friday's close and GQG.AU (-9.50% on Friday) leaves.

Economic calendar today

• 12:30 AEST: RBA Assistant Governor (Economics) Sarah Hunter, fireside chat, Regions Rising summit, Canberra
• 22:30 AEST: US Empire State manufacturing survey, September
• This week, date unfixed: China August new yuan loans and aggregate financing
• Tue 12:00 AEST: China August industrial production, retail sales (+0.6% year on year forecast) and fixed-asset investment; the FOMC meeting begins
• Wed 22:30 AEST: US August retail sales
• Thu 04:00 AEST: FOMC decision and projections; 04:30 press conference; 21:00 Bank of England decision
• Fri 09:30 AEST: RBA before the House Economics Committee; about 13:00 Bank of Japan decision; S&P/ASX quarterly rebalance effective after the close

What to watch

• 8,741.2 was Friday's S&P/ASX 200 close, the lowest since 2 July and 0.31% above the 2025 close of 8,714.3; Friday's breadth was 47 advancers to 150 decliners.
• 14.36 on the S&P/ASX 200 volatility index (+9.24% on Friday, +35% for the week) against a VIX that fell 11.21% to 15.84 the same night.
• 8,747 on the SPI settle predates the Monday futures reopen; the Nikkei, which closed Friday at 64,011.34 (-1.93%), opens at 10:00 AEST.
• Four straight ASX 200 falls into Friday; the index last closed higher on Monday 7 September at 9,010.9.

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