ASX 200 futures fall 0.2% to 8,731 as chip stocks drop 5.86% on the AI slowdown call and the US 10-year touches 5%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.2%

S&P/ASX 200 futures traded at 8,731 at 07:10 AEST on 15 September 2026, 0.2% below Monday's 8,749.9 cash close, after the PHLX Semiconductor index fell 5.86% on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's call to slow AI model development and pulled the S&P 500 down 0.48% to 7,619.98. GLW.US fell 13.70%, the largest fall in the S&P 500, after Corning disclosed a US$2 billion at-the-market share sale program. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.012%, its first print above 5% since 2023, before closing at 4.961%, with rate futures pricing about a 90% chance of a 25 basis point Fed hike on Thursday at 04:00 AEST.

Overnight drivers

• Chips lower, software higher: The PHLX Semiconductor index fell 5.86% to 11,131.28 as NVDA.US lost 3.36%, AVGO.US 4.77%, MU.US 5.25% and AMD.US 4.40%. IGV.US, the software fund, rose 5.04% on the same AI safety debate, with ZS.US +16.52%, CRWD.US +13.85% and PANW.US +13.09%.
• US yields: The 10-year hit 5.012% at 10:20am ET and closed 1.4 bp lower at 4.961%; the 30-year closed at 5.329%. CME FedWatch pricing puts a hike to 3.75% to 4.00% at about 90%. Australia's 10-year sits at 5.37%, per ABC.
• Crude: Brent settled 1.02% higher at US$105.68 after rising as much as 5% in the session, and WTI settled 1.34% higher at US$101.39. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, about 7 million barrels a day of capacity to Red Sea ports, after attacks from Iraqi territory. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he expects it running again "very soon".
• Metals in New York: December gold settled at US$4,351.90, down 1.29% from Friday, and NEM.US fell 2.95% while GDX.US lost 3.05%. Uranium miner CCJ.US fell 3.54% and lithium producer ALB.US 2.12%. The BHP.US ADR fell 2.77% to US$84.74.

Overnight Wall Street

Monday 14 September close:

• S&P 500: 7,619.98 (-0.48%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,186.41 (-0.56%)
• Nasdaq 100: 29,127.16 (-0.82%)
• Dow Jones: 52,421.20 (-0.29%)
• Russell 2000: 2,892.24 (-0.40%)
• VIX: 17.10 (+7.95%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,619.98 on 14 September 2026, down 37.00 points or 0.48%, 28 points above its 7,592.28 session low. Eight of 11 sectors fell. XLK.US lost 1.81% at about a third of index weight, while XLC.US rose 2.19% with GOOGL.US +3.22% and META.US +2.71%, and XLV.US added 1.45%. MSFT.US rose 1.97%. RSP.US, the equal-weight S&P 500 fund, gained 0.07% while SPY.US fell 0.45%, so the index loss came from its largest stocks.

Data-centre power suppliers fell with the chips: GEV.US -8.62%, VRT.US -7.63% and CEG.US -7.09%. HPE.US lost 10.76% after an Evercore ISI downgrade, giving back most of Friday's 12.44% gain. BAC.US fell 5.14% after guiding third-quarter investment banking fees to US$1.6 billion to US$1.8 billion, against US$2 billion a year earlier. SFTBY.US fell 15.06% after Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 OpenAI listing.

At 08:30 AEST, S&P 500 futures were +0.05% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.03%. In Europe on Monday, the STOXX 600 fell 0.49% to 635.99 and the DAX 0.50%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.44%.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

Prices at 08:30 AEST unless stated.

• Brent: US$106.41 (+0.69%); Monday settle US$105.68 (+1.02%)
• WTI: US$101.97 (+0.57%); Monday settle US$101.39 (+1.34%)
• Gold, December futures: US$4,336.30/oz (-0.36%); Monday settle US$4,351.90 (-1.29%)
• Copper, December futures: US$6.400/lb, 1.2% below US$6.48 at the ASX close
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$95.75/t (-0.8%), ABC 07:10 update
• Silver: US$63.72/oz (-0.66%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7143, against 0.7141 at the ASX close
• US Dollar Index: 99.47 (+0.35%)

Gold, copper and iron ore are all lower since the ASX close while Brent is higher. At 0.7143 AUD/USD, the BHP.US close converts to about $59.32 a share, 2.1% below BHP.AU's $60.59 Monday close. The Australian dollar is 0.02 cents above its level at the ASX close, so USD earners open without a currency move.

Key themes for ASX open

• 1.14% was Monday's fall in ASX Information Technology, led by MP1.AU -8.30% and NXT.AU -2.90%. NXT.AU and GMG.AU (-2.27% Monday) own data centres, the side of the US trade that fell; XRO.AU (+0.87%) and TNE.AU (+0.57%) sell software, the side that rose.
• NST.AU +2.49% and NEM.AU +0.57% closed higher on Monday, before December gold settled 1.29% lower and GDX.US fell 3.05%. EVN.AU fell 3.21% on Monday.
• WDS.AU +0.67% and STO.AU +1.63% rose on Monday with Brent at US$107.44 at the ASX close; Brent is now US$106.41. QAN.AU closed at $9.03, down 0.44%.
• 5.37% on Australia's 10-year. CBA.AU rose 0.51% to $154.97 on Monday, WBC.AU 0.91% and ANZ.AU 0.72%.
• PDN.AU -6.91% and DYL.AU -8.83% fell on Monday before CCJ.US -3.54%; PLS.AU -2.43% and MIN.AU -4.40% fell before ALB.US -2.12%.
• 14 ASX-listed companies requested trading halts before the open, per Stockhead.

Economic calendar today

• 12:00 AEST: China August industrial production (+4.8% year on year forecast, July +4.5%), retail sales (+0.8% forecast, July +0.6%) and fixed-asset investment
• Tuesday in Washington: the FOMC's two-day meeting begins; the Senate holds a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act
• 22:30 AEST: US Empire State manufacturing survey, September
• Wed 22:30 AEST: US August retail sales and import prices
• Thu 04:00 AEST: FOMC decision and projections; 04:30 Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference; 21:00 Bank of England decision
• Fri 09:30 AEST: RBA before the House Economics Committee; about 13:00 Bank of Japan decision; S&P/ASX quarterly rebalance effective after the close

What to watch

• 8,749.9 was Monday's S&P/ASX 200 close, up 0.10% and ending four straight falls, on breadth of 107 advancers to 108 decliners.
• 14.05 on the S&P/ASX 200 volatility index (-2.12% on Monday) against a US VIX that rose 7.95% to 17.10 overnight.
• 5.012% was the US 10-year intraday high, two sessions before the Fed decision.
• Nikkei 63,492.99 (-0.81%) and KOSPI 6,684.37 (-3.26%) closed on Monday before the US chip fall; Tokyo opens at 10:00 AEST.

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