ASX 200 opens Friday against a semiconductor-led Nasdaq fall

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.3% (26 points lower)

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,881.95 on 16 July 2026, down 1.47%, after Taiwan Semiconductor TSM.US lifted full-year capital spending guidance to US$60bn to US$64bn from US$52bn to US$56bn and semiconductor shares fell on the higher spending number. Alphabet GOOGL.US dropped 4.44% to US$354.46 after Bloomberg reported its Gemini 3.5 Pro model is months behind schedule. Apple AAPL.US rose 1.76% and Microsoft MSFT.US added 1.38% in the same session, which held the Dow to -0.20%.

Overnight drivers

• Semiconductor spending: SMCI.US -8.22%, ORCL.US -6.25%, INTC.US -5.84%, MU.US -5.65%, AMD.US -5.33% and AVGO.US -5.03% after the TSM.US capex raise. TSM.US itself fell 2.32% despite beating on earnings. The local names with data centre exposure closed Thursday at NXT.AU $13.45, MP1.AU $19.92 and GMG.AU $29.12, all before this news reached Sydney.
• Alphabet: GOOGL.US -4.44% to US$354.46 on the reported Gemini 3.5 Pro delay. META.US -2.46%, NVDA.US -2.40% and AMZN.US -1.99% finished lower in the same session.
• Oil: Brent +0.82% to US$84.92 against its previous settle, with US military action against Iran and Strait of Hormuz supply concerns in the frame. WDS.AU closed Thursday at $29.49 and STO.AU at $7.54.
• US rates and the dollar: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.57% and the US Dollar Index gained 0.22% to 100.71, leaving AUD/USD at 0.6998. June retail sales came in weak while jobless claims undershot forecasts.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,533.77 (-0.51%)
• Nasdaq: 25,881.95 (-1.47%)
• Dow: 52,552.97 (-0.20%)
• VIX: 16.73 (+6.76%)

The Nasdaq trailed the Dow by 127 basis points. The large decliners were companies that build or buy AI hardware. Salesforce CRM.US rose 3.40%, Apple AAPL.US 1.76% and Microsoft MSFT.US 1.38%, and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,974.57, down 0.06%, so small caps sat out the session. VIX rose from 15.67 to 16.73. Netflix NFLX.US reported after the bell: revenue of US$12.56bn against US$12.59bn expected, earnings of 80 US cents against 79 cents expected, and the stock fell more than 8% in after-hours trade. S&P 500 futures ES=F are down 0.14% and Nasdaq 100 futures NQ=F down 0.25% as Sydney opens.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$3,980.10/oz (-0.30%)
• Brent: US$84.92 (+0.82%)
• Copper: US$6.2885/lb (-0.84%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe CFR Qingdao: US$102.73/t (14 July assessment)
• AUD/USD: 0.6998 (-0.14%)

Copper fell 0.84% overnight into a local market that already repriced the metal on Thursday, when BHP.AU closed down 2.34% at $59.14 after its copper guidance missed forecasts and RIO.AU eased 0.35% to $164.89. Gold at US$3,980.10/oz follows the firmer US dollar; NST.AU finished Thursday at $20.07 and EVN.AU at $11.00 after a 3.00% fall. Iron ore last printed US$102.73/t on 14 July, above the US$100/t level it reclaimed in mid-July. AUD/USD at 0.6998 sits under 70 US cents, which lifts the Australian-dollar value of US-dollar revenue at CSL.AU ($121.95 Thursday close), RMD.AU ($28.34) and CPU.AU ($39.15).

Key themes for ASX open

• Technology: WTC.AU +2.07%, XRO.AU +1.19% and TNE.AU +1.19% closed Thursday ahead of the Nasdaq's 1.47% fall, so the local sector opens against a weaker offshore reference.
• Data centres: NXT.AU -2.61% and MP1.AU -2.35% on Thursday. The TSM.US capex raise to US$60bn to US$64bn points to more capacity spending, and to higher costs at the companies funding it.
• Energy: Brent added 0.82% to US$84.92 against its previous settle on the Iran supply concerns. WDS.AU (-1.47%) and STO.AU (-1.82%) both closed lower on Thursday.
• Banks: CBA.AU +1.84%, NAB.AU +1.25%, ANZ.AU +0.72% and WBC.AU +0.14% held Thursday's flat index close together. The US 10-year at 4.57% is the offshore rate reference.
• Gold miners: NST.AU -0.10% and EVN.AU -3.00% on Thursday, with spot gold now at US$3,980.10/oz and the US dollar firmer.

Economic calendar today

• No scheduled Australian data releases today. The ABS and RBA calendars are both empty for 17 July.
• Tue 21 July: Westpac Leading Index.
• Thu 23 July, 11:30 AEST: ABS Labour Force, Australia (June).

What to watch

• 8,840.7 was Thursday's ASX 200 close, down 0.4 points on breadth of 507 advancers to 558 decliners, so a flat print covered a small majority of decliners.
• SPI futures point to a 26 point (0.3%) lower open, a smaller reaction than the Nasdaq's 1.47% fall implies.
• Netflix's fall of more than 8% came after the bell and is not in the 25,881.95 Nasdaq print.

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