ASX 200 futures flat as oil jumps 9% and chips lead Wall Street lower: 14 July 2026

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.09%

S&P/ASX 200 futures point to a near-flat open, down 8 points or 0.09%, as a 9% surge in crude oil and a rally in energy stocks offset a second straight semiconductor selloff and a 2.8% slide in gold. The chip selling centred on memory: South Korea's Kospi fell 8.9% and tripped a circuit breaker as SK Hynix dropped 15.3% and Samsung 10.7%, dragging US names Intel INTC.US (-6.12%), Micron MU.US (-4.32%) and Nvidia NVDA.US (-3.52%). Wall Street closed lower (S&P 500 -0.79%, Nasdaq -1.55%) with the VIX up 14% to 17.2, leaving local miners under pressure while Woodside WDS.AU and energy peers screen as the offset into the open.

Overnight drivers

• Oil +9.15%: WTI settled at US$78.00 and Brent reached US$83.10, the highest since 16 June, after President Trump reinstated a Strait of Hormuz naval blockade and floated a 20% toll on all cargo through the strait. US Energy was the top S&P 500 sector at +3.16%, which flows to ASX energy earners WDS.AU, STO.AU, ALD.AU and coal names WHC.AU, NHC.AU.
• Semiconductors, second day of selling: Intel INTC.US -6.12%, Micron MU.US -4.32%, AMD.US -4.21%, Broadcom AVGO.US -3.98% and Nvidia NVDA.US -3.52% sent US Information Technology down 2.07%. ASX tech carries a light index weight, so the read for WTC.AU and XRO.AU is soft rather than decisive.
• Gold -2.83% to US$4,004/oz: a firmer US dollar (DXY +0.32%) and rising yields cut the gold price, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF fell 2.86%. Local gold names NST.AU and EVN.AU face that lead, alongside uranium, lithium and copper miners that all fell 3% to 5% overnight.
• US yields higher: the 10-year Treasury yield pushed 4.61% and the 2-year hit a 17-month high of 4.28% as the oil spike revived inflation concern. Higher yields add pressure to rate-sensitive REITs and long-duration growth names.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,515 (-0.79%)
• Nasdaq: 25,873 (-1.55%)
• Dow: 52,499 (-0.26%)
• Russell 2000: 2,953 (-0.83%)
• VIX: 17.2 (+14.17%)

The Dow held up far better than the Nasdaq because surging energy stocks and steady defensives (Utilities +0.67%, Financials +0.61%, Staples +0.59%) cushioned it, while the memory-chip selloff dragged Information Technology 2.07% lower. Microsoft MSFT.US (+1.53%), Amazon AMZN.US (+0.80%) and Apple AAPL.US (+0.63%) closed higher, so the selling was concentrated in the AI-linked chip names rather than big tech as a whole. Asian equities fell further, with the Kospi off 8.9%, the Nikkei 225 down 1.92% and the Shanghai Composite off 2.06%.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,004/oz (-2.83%)
• Brent: US$83.10 (highest since 16 June, about 16% above pre-war levels)
• WTI: US$78.00 (+9.15%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$98.31/t (-0.42% on the day, -3.56% over the month)
• Copper: US$6.23/lb (little changed)
• AUD/USD: US$0.6921 (69.2 US cents, steady)

Oil was the session's only major commodity gainer. Iron ore held near US$98 on soft Chinese demand, and the Steel ETF was flat at +0.19%, so the read for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU is more neutral than the broad miner selloff. Gold, silver, copper, uranium and lithium all fell, which points the ASX materials sector lower outside iron ore and energy.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy leads the offset: the oil spike supports WDS.AU, STO.AU and ALD.AU, and the strength in coal (WHC.AU, NHC.AU, YAL.AU) is the single biggest reason SPI futures sit near flat rather than tracking the Nasdaq lower.
• Gold miners face a soft lead: NST.AU and EVN.AU take a 2.8% gold drop into the open, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF closed at a fresh multi-month low.
• Materials outside iron ore under pressure: uranium, lithium, copper and rare-earth names fell 3% to 5% offshore on the stronger US dollar and higher yields.
• Iron ore majors more neutral: BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU sit on a flat iron-ore print near US$98/t ahead of China's balance-of-trade data at 1:00pm AEST.
• Local tech soft, not decisive: WTC.AU and XRO.AU inherit a Nasdaq down 1.55%, though ASX technology carries a smaller index weight than in the US.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

• 10:30am: Westpac Consumer Confidence (prior 80.6, near a 50-year low)
• 11:30am: NAB Business Confidence (June)
• 1:00pm: China Balance of Trade (June)
• 10:30pm: US CPI (consensus -0.2% month-on-month, +3.8% year-on-year, the first negative monthly headline in over a year)
• Overnight: US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee

What to watch

• Whether ASX energy strength can hold the index near flat if the gold and broader materials selling spreads through the resources sector at the open.
• The Westpac and NAB reads at 10:30am and 11:30am for any further softening in household and business confidence.
• US CPI tonight and Warsh's testimony, with Fed Governor Waller having warned the Fed may need to consider rate hikes if inflation runs hot.

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