Morning briefAfternoon brief
morning

ASX 200 faces a split open: soft US CPI lifts Nasdaq 0.90%, Brent holds near US$85

The Nasdaq rose 0.90% and the 10-year yield eased after June CPI cooled to 3.5%; Brent held US$85.45 on the Iran blockade and the AUD firmed to 0.6976.

Mixed3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,8090.00%
S&P 5007,544+0.38%
NASDAQ26,107+0.90%
VIX16.5-3.85%
AUD/USD0.6976+0.80%

ASX 200 faces a split open: soft US CPI lifts Nasdaq 0.90%, Brent holds near US$85

Sentiment: mixed Overnight lead: Nasdaq +0.90%, S&P 500 +0.38%; Brent +0.85% to US$85.45; AUD +0.80% to 0.6976

The S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 7,543.6 and the Nasdaq +0.90% at 26,107 after June US CPI cooled to 3.5% year on year against a 3.8% consensus, pulling the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.585% and lifting semiconductors. IBM.US fell 25.21% on a profit warning, holding the Dow to +0.02% even as the S&P and Nasdaq rose. The AUD firmed 0.80% to 0.6976 on the softer US dollar, and Brent held US$85.45 near a one-month high on the reimposed Iran naval blockade, setting a two-way ASX 200 open from Tuesday's 8,808.5 close.

Overnight drivers

  • US June CPI 3.5%, below the 3.8% consensus as energy costs eased, cut the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.585% and the US dollar index 0.29% to 100.94. The softer USD lifted the AUD 0.80% to 0.6976, a translation headwind for USD earners CSL.AU and QBE.AU.
  • US semiconductors rebounded: NVDA.US +4.06%, MU.US +4.92%, AMD.US +2.57% and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF +2.51% drove the Nasdaq's 0.90% gain, a firm lead for ASX tech WTC.AU and XRO.AU.
  • Brent +0.85% to US$85.45, near a one-month high, after the US reimposed its naval blockade on Iran on 13 July with a 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz cargo. A tailwind for energy WDS.AU and STO.AU and a fresh inflation input for the RBA path.
  • Iron ore near US$98/t on a supply-led bid, ahead of an eight-hour strike planned at BHP.AU's Port Hedland terminal on 16 July and reported curbs on some Fortescue fines, supportive for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,543.6 (+0.38%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,107 (+0.90%)
  • Dow: 52,508 (+0.02%)
  • VIX: 16.5 (-3.85%)

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,107 on 14 July 2026, up 0.90%, led by chipmakers after the VanEck Semiconductor ETF rose 2.51%, NVDA.US 4.06% and MU.US 4.92%. IBM.US dropped 25.21% on a profit warning tied to soft software and infrastructure demand, the single largest drag on the Dow, and Citigroup fell 5.29% even after a second-quarter earnings beat. The VIX eased 3.85% to 16.5 as the cooler inflation print lifted expectations for US rate cuts, and the Russell 2000 added 0.39%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,057/oz (-0.31%)
  • Brent: US$85.45 (+0.85%)
  • WTI: US$79.91 (+0.72%)
  • Iron ore 62% CFR China: about US$98/t
  • Copper: US$6.366/lb (-0.19%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6976 (+0.80%)

Brent at US$85.45 and WTI at US$79.91 hold near one-month highs, lifting energy producers WDS.AU and STO.AU on the open. Iron ore near US$98/t leaves BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU well bid before the 16 July Port Hedland strike. Gold slipped 0.31% to US$4,057 despite the softer USD, with the VIX at 16.5 pointing to lighter haven demand, a mild offset for NST.AU and EVN.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Energy is the session's clearest overnight beneficiary, with Brent and WTI near one-month highs behind WDS.AU and STO.AU.
  • Iron ore majors BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU sit under a supply squeeze near US$98/t, with the 16 July Port Hedland strike a fresh catalyst.
  • Banks and REITs: the RBA held rates in July, but Australian bond yields have edged up on the oil-driven inflation risk, a headwind on Tuesday for CBA.AU, NAB.AU and REIT GMG.AU that runs opposite the miners.
  • Tech: WTC.AU and XRO.AU open against a firm US chip lead, the Nasdaq +0.90% and the semiconductor ETF +2.51%.
  • USD earners: the AUD at 0.6976, up 0.80%, trims the AUD value of offshore revenue for CSL.AU and QBE.AU.

Economic calendar today

  • Domestic data is light after Tuesday's releases: Westpac consumer sentiment rose 4.1% to 83.9 in July, and the NAB business survey landed the same morning.
  • US bank earnings continue after Citigroup and IBM.US reported on Tuesday.
  • Oil and Strait of Hormuz shipping flows stay the key macro swing factor for the RBA path.

What to watch

  • Breadth at the open: whether the energy and iron-ore bid outweighs the drag on CBA.AU and the rate-sensitive REITs.
  • The AUD near 0.6976: further US dollar softness would extend the translation headwind for offshore-revenue names.
  • Any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, which feeds directly into Brent and the local inflation debate.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.

Track every trade. Learn from every week.

Swingfolio logs your entries, exits, and R-multiples automatically — so your weekly review writes itself.

Start freeSee features

Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →