ASX 200 futures point 0.50% lower as a hawkish Fed hold lifts the 30-year yield to a 19-year high

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.50%

ASX SPI 200 September futures closed the overnight session at 8,935.5 on 30 July 2026, down 45 points or 0.50%, after the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% and three of its twelve policymakers dissented in favour of a quarter-point increase, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield up 10.5 basis points to 5.201%. MU.US fell 9.94%, the largest single-name decline overnight, as memory selling spread from Seoul, where the KOSPI triggered a market-wide circuit breaker for a second consecutive session and closed down 5.98%. Brent settled 7.9% higher at US$90.74 a barrel after the US and Iran exchanged military fire, leaving energy the one sector with a positive overnight lead.

Overnight drivers

• Hawkish Fed hold: the 30-year Treasury yield rose 10.5 basis points to 5.201% and touched 5.244%, its highest since July 2007, while the 2-year fell 4 basis points to 4.236%. Three of twelve FOMC members preferred a hike, the widest one-directional dissent since September 2016. Long-dated yields rose while the policy rate held, a shape that reflects doubt about the inflation path rather than expectations of near-term tightening. Australian rate-sensitive names take the same input: GMG.AU closed 1.08% lower yesterday and the Australian 10-year sits at 4.96%.
• Brent US$90.74, up 7.9%: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck a US airbase with ballistic missiles, and the US and Saudi Arabia hit Iran-backed groups in Iraq. WTI settled 6.6% higher at US$84.46 and XOM.US gained 2.42%, the clearest positive input for WDS.AU and STO.AU at the open.
• MU.US -9.94%, AMD.US -5.51%, INTC.US -5.12%: TSM.US fell 4.50% and NVDA.US 3.55% after SK Hynix posted record quarterly earnings that still missed consensus. The KOSPI has now fallen 16% across two sessions, its first back-to-back circuit breakers on record, and the Nasdaq Composite sits more than 10% below its all-time high.
• CAT.US -6.91%, GS.US -5.09%, BA.US -3.41%: three of the highest-priced Dow members fell together, which in a price-weighted index produced a 2.19% Dow decline against the Nasdaq's 1.74%. US industrials fell 3.42% as a sector, which is the group MIN.AU and the mining services names trade against.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,316.15 (-1.52%)
• Nasdaq: 24,442.94 (-1.74%)
• Dow: 51,594.14 (-2.19%)
• VIX: 20.66 (+13.45%)

The Dow's 2.19% fall, worth 1,153 points, was its worst since April 2025 and outpaced the Nasdaq, inverting the pattern that has held through most of this year's declines. CAT.US at US$782.71 and GS.US at US$980.75 rank among the highest-priced Dow members, so their falls of 6.91% and 5.09% moved that index further than a broad technology decline would. The Russell 2000 fell 1.61% to 2,906.31, so the selling reached past the largest names, and the VIX rose 13.45% to 20.66, its highest close since 10 June.

Microsoft and Meta reported after the bell and diverged. MSFT.US closed the regular session 0.71% lower and rose 2.4% in after-hours trade, with capital expenditure up 70% to US$41bn. META.US closed 1.31% lower and fell 6.2% after hours on earnings per share of US$6.18 against US$7.22 expected, expenses up 55% to US$42bn and net income down 14% to US$15.8bn. S&P 500 futures now trade 0.31% higher and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.46% higher, which is why the SPI reversal is shallower than the cash close alone implies.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,132/oz now, 0.85% above a settle that itself closed 1.5% higher
• Brent: US$90.74 settle (+7.9%), US$90.40 now
• WTI: US$84.46 settle (+6.6%), US$84.25 now
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$98.27/t (-0.03%)
• Copper: US$6.365/lb (+0.85% against the settle)
• AUD/USD: 0.6959 (-0.27%)

Gold at US$4,132/oz with the US dollar index down 0.61% to 100.802 gives NST.AU and EVN.AU a firmer opening setup than the index. Iron ore held at US$98.27/t and remains under US$100, while BHP.AU rose 1.36%, RIO.AU 3.67% and FMG.AU 2.03% yesterday on Rio Tinto's 43% dividend increase. AUD/USD slipped 0.27% to 0.6959 even as the US dollar index fell 0.61%, so the pair lost ground against a softer dollar. The June quarter inflation undershoot is the local input behind that.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: Brent's 7.9% settle gain is the largest positive overnight input, and it landed after WDS.AU had already closed 1.39% higher yesterday.
• Financials: the four majors sat out yesterday's 1.01% index gain, with CBA.AU -0.07%, NAB.AU -0.02% and WBC.AU -0.21%. The sector holds roughly 30% of index weight and opens against a 19-year high on the US 30-year yield.
• Technology: WTC.AU rose 2.33% and XRO.AU 4.11% yesterday. The Nasdaq now sits more than 10% below its record after two sessions of memory selling.
• Gold: NST.AU gained 2.22% and EVN.AU 0.97% yesterday, with bullion adding 0.85% overnight.
• Consumer: DMP.AU reaffirmed preliminary unaudited FY26 underlying net profit after tax of $118m to $122m, booked $259m of write-downs across France, Taiwan and IT assets, and reported free cash flow of $164m, up $116.6m. Same-store sales fell 4.1% and leverage sits near 1.9 times EBITDA.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: ABS Building Approvals, June 2026
• 11:30 AEST: ABS International Trade Price Indexes, June quarter 2026

What to watch

• 9,038.6 was yesterday's close, the first above 9,000 since 2 March. Futures at 8,935.5 put that level in question at the open.
• 9,043.5 was the SPI overnight high and 8,935.5 its close, a 108 point range that measures how much of the Wall Street decline landed after Australian hours.
• 4.96% on the Australian 10-year against 5.201% on the US 30-year is the gap that decides whether the long-end move carries into local bonds today.
• 0.6959 on AUD/USD marks a sixth consecutive close below 0.70, with 21 July the last session to finish above that line.

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