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ASX 200 set to open 0.4% lower as crude climbs and CBA reports FY26

SPI futures point 37 points lower after the Hormuz impasse lifted Brent 1.6%. CBA reports FY26 and US July CPI lands at 22:30 AEST.

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2009,251+0.19%
S&P 5007,728-0.32%
NASDAQ26,445-0.60%
Dow53,792-0.34%
VIX15.28-1.16%
Gold4,434-0.16%
Brent89.29+0.43%
AUD/USD0.707+0.12%
SPI_F9,214-0.40%

ASX 200 set to open 0.4% lower as crude climbs and CBA reports FY26

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.4%

SPI futures point the S&P/ASX 200 to open 37 points or 0.4% lower from Tuesday's 9,250.6 close, after the US and Iran failed to advance a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 7,728.2. Alphabet GOOGL.US dropped 3.84% to US$343.80 and the Nasdaq closed 0.60% lower, the weakest of the three US benchmarks. Commonwealth Bank CBA.AU reports FY26 this morning and US July CPI lands at 22:30 AEST, with markets pricing roughly a 51% chance of a September Fed hike.

Overnight drivers

  • Crude higher on the Hormuz impasse: Brent rose 1.6% to US$89.10 and WTI 1.55% to US$83.40 after Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi ruled out restarting negotiations under current conditions. ASX energy priced this a session early: BPT.AU +5.45%, STO.AU +5.36%, WDS.AU +3.84%.
  • Fed hike odds near 51%: the US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.68%, down about 2 basis points, after topping 4.71% on Monday. Odds of a 25 basis point September increase rose to about 51% from 44% a day earlier, after Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said multiple increases may be needed to return inflation to 2%.
  • Selling stayed narrow: the Russell 2000 rose 0.32% while all three large-cap US benchmarks fell. AMZN.US lost 2.09% and AAPL.US 1.09%, though NVDA.US held flat at US$217.50 and META.US added 0.71%.
  • Gold went nowhere into CPI: futures US$4,433.9/oz, spot US$4,376.62/oz, neither moving more than 0.34%. NST.AU fell 0.87% and EVN.AU rose 0.73% on Tuesday.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,728.2 (-0.32%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,445.4 (-0.60%)
  • Dow: 53,791.9 (-0.34%)
  • VIX: 15.28 (-1.16%)

The S&P 500 closed 0.32% lower on 11 August 2026, its second consecutive fall since setting a record late last week. Alphabet accounted for the bulk of the Nasdaq's decline on its own. Chevron CVX.US rose 0.90% as crude climbed, splitting energy from tech. The VIX fell 1.16% to 15.28, so two days of losses off a record have not moved volatility pricing.

Commodities and FX

  • Brent: settled up 1.6% at US$89.10, trading US$89.29 at 08:30 AEST
  • WTI: settled up 1.55% at US$83.40, trading US$83.55 at 08:30 AEST
  • Gold: US$4,433.9/oz futures (-0.16%), spot US$4,376.62/oz (-0.34%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: US$95.08/t (+0.56%)
  • Copper: US$6.62/lb (+0.36%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7070 (+0.12%)

Iron ore at US$95.08/t sits 3.29% below where it traded a month ago, moving opposite to crude. That split showed up in Tuesday's miners: BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU each finished within 0.7% of flat, at $63.93, $179.86 and $18.02, while the energy names ran 3.8% to 5.5%. AUD/USD at 0.7070 barely moved.

Key themes for ASX open

  • CBA.AU FY26 results: Commonwealth Bank, the largest company listed on the exchange, reports full-year results this morning. Morgan Stanley forecasts cash profit up 6.8% to $10.95 billion, net interest margin down 2 basis points to 2.06%, and a fully franked full-year dividend of $5.05 per share. CBA.AU closed Tuesday at $173.92, down 0.20%.
  • Energy: BPT.AU, STO.AU and WDS.AU all closed up more than 3.8% on Tuesday, before Brent added a further 1.6% overnight. WDS.AU finished at $33.01.
  • Life360 360.AU fell 19.44% to $23.75 on Tuesday after its June-quarter update. Revenue rose 38% to US$159.0 million and advertising revenue rose 315% to US$22 million, against guidance for softer third-quarter margins and a profit profile weighted to the end of FY26.
  • Austal ASB.AU rose 17.45% to $4.510 after Hanwha Defense USA made a preliminary, non-binding offer of US$1.05 billion to US$1.20 billion for Austal USA. Hanwha has four weeks of due diligence, and the offer excludes Austal's Australian, Philippine and Vietnamese operations.
  • ASX tech went into the overnight US session split, with WTC.AU down 0.51% at $40.84 and XRO.AU up 1.47% at $78.89.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

  • Before the open: Commonwealth Bank CBA.AU FY26 results
  • Before the open: Computershare CPU.AU FY26 results
  • 22:30: US July CPI. Consensus is +0.1% month on month and 3.4% year on year for headline, down from 3.5%, with core at +0.2% and 2.5% year on year, down from 2.6%.

What to watch

  • The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday in a unanimous decision, following three increases earlier in 2026. CBA.AU's margin and credit-quality disclosure is the first major bank result to land against that setting.
  • Tuesday's 9,250.6 close sits 21 points under the record 9,271.6 set on 6 August. A 37-point fall would put the index about 0.7% below that high.
  • US CPI prints after the ASX close, so Thursday's session carries the local response to it.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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