ASX 200 set to open 18 points lower as US July CPI lands in line at 3.4%

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.2%

SPI futures point the S&P/ASX 200 to open 18 points or 0.2% lower on 13 August 2026 near 9,191, after an overnight session where the buying stayed inside US tech: the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.54% to 26,588.5 and the S&P 500 0.26% to 7,748.5, while the Dow slipped 0.04%. SEEK Ltd (SEK.AU) fell 14.31% to $13.77 on Wednesday after its FY26 result, and Bell Potter cut the stock to hold this morning, lowering its valuation to $15.20 from $18.58. US July CPI printed 3.4% year on year, matching forecasts and easing from 3.5% in June, which shifted September Federal Reserve pricing from an even split toward no change.

Overnight drivers

• US July CPI 3.4% y/y, core 2.5%: headline inflation rose 0.1% on the month. September Fed pricing moved from roughly 50-50 the day before toward a hold. Lower hike odds help rate-sensitive local sectors, and the A-REIT sector index fell 1.02% on Wednesday as the weakest part of the market.
• Gold spot +0.66% to US$4,399.20/oz, close to a 10-week high. China's central bank added about 20 tonnes in July, its 21st consecutive month of buying, and central banks bought an estimated 289 tonnes in the second quarter. NST.AU closed up 0.66% and NEM.AU up 0.94% on Wednesday.
• Brent -0.45% to US$88.58 in electronic trade, easing after the US fired on a Panama-flagged vessel crossing the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday and lifted the benchmark near US$90. Brent still sits about 12% above its 4 August settle of US$79.36. WDS.AU fell 0.70% and STO.AU 0.37%.
• Iron ore unchanged at US$95.09/t (+0.01%), down 3.28% over the past month. BHP.AU closed 0.75% lower, RIO.AU 0.24% lower and FMG.AU 0.33% lower.

Iron ore was flat, Brent gave back part of its run, and the Dow's industrial names closed lower, which is why SPI futures point down despite the S&P 500 gain. Technology carries far less weight in the ASX 200 than in the S&P 500, so an overnight tech bid does little for the local index.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,748.5 (+0.26%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,588.5 (+0.54%)
• Dow Jones: 53,770.3 (-0.04%)
• Russell 2000: 3,045.5 (+0.61%)
• VIX: 14.55 (-4.78%)

VIX fell 4.78% to 14.55, the sharpest single move of the session, as an in-line CPI print removed the risk of an upside inflation surprise. The US 10-year yield held at 4.682%, down 0.2 basis points, and the ICE dollar index rose 0.16% to 99.985. Inflation at 3.4% still sits above the Federal Reserve's 2% target while the funds rate is 3.75%, so the September meeting stays open. Brent near US$90 keeps upward pressure on both energy costs and Treasury yields.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,399.20/oz (+0.66%)
• Brent: US$88.58 (-0.45%)
• WTI: US$82.77 (-0.60%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China: US$95.09/t (+0.01%)
• Copper: US$6.59/lb (-0.30%)
• Silver: US$65.15/oz (+0.74%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7064 (+0.04%)

Gold and iron ore pull the local mining sector in opposite directions this morning. Gold at US$4,399.20/oz supports NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU, while iron ore stuck at US$95.09/t leaves BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU without a catalyst, a month after the benchmark stood 3.28% higher. AUD/USD at 0.7064 has barely moved, so currency translation for CSL.AU and other USD earners is unchanged from Wednesday.

Key themes for ASX open

• Five FY26 results land today: TLS.AU (closed $5.00), IAG.AU ($8.23), ORG.AU ($11.26), ASX.AU ($55.51) and TWE.AU ($5.50). ORG.AU rose 2.93% and IAG.AU 2.62% ahead of the numbers, while TWE.AU fell 2.48% and ASX.AU 2.75%.
• AGL.AU +5.95% to $8.72 on Wednesday after FY26 underlying EBITDA of $2.1 billion, up 2%, operating free cash flow up 60% to $850 million, and a 26 cent fully franked final dividend that took the full-year payout to 50 cents from 48 cents. The utilities sector index added 2.54%, the strongest of the eleven sectors.
• SEK.AU at $13.77 after Wednesday's 14.31% fall, with the Bell Potter downgrade landing before the open.
• LTR.AU +5.51%, PLS.AU +4.27% and IGO.AU +3.46% on Wednesday, with the lithium carbonate benchmark up 2.25% to 148,000 CNY/t and 82.72% higher over twelve months.
• CDA.AU +9.30% to $44.54 led the ASX 200 on Wednesday with no price-sensitive announcement, following an investor presentation lodged that morning.

Economic calendar today

• No scheduled ABS release. The July Labour Force report is due 20 August at 11:30 AEST.
• 10:00 AEST: ASX opens, with five ASX 200 results lodged before the bell.

What to watch

• Breadth against Wednesday's pattern, when nine of eleven sectors closed lower yet the index lost only 0.45%.
• The gap between gold at US$4,399.20/oz and iron ore at US$95.09/t, which splits the materials sector instead of moving it as one.
• Dispersion across today's five results, after Wednesday delivered CDA.AU +9.30% and SEK.AU -14.31% in the same session.

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