ASX 200 set to open 25 points lower as a failed US Treasury buyback lifts long yields

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.3%

The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open about 25 points or 0.3% lower on Friday 21 August 2026 from Thursday's close of 9,083.8, after the US Treasury's debt buyback failed to hold long yields down and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 703.84 points. Walmart WMT.US fell 9.15% to US$103.84 on a US comparable-sales miss and reduced third-quarter and full-year guidance, the largest single drag on that index. Gold settled 1.90% higher at US$4,574.80 an ounce and the US-listed miners rose with it, so the implied local gap is about a third of the S&P 500's decline.

Overnight drivers

• US long yields: the 10-year rose 4.3 basis points to 4.696% and the 30-year 4.3 basis points to 5.237%, giving back Wednesday's relief. A Treasury buyback operation sized above US$4 billion did not cap them. CBA.AU fell 2.66% to $156.44 and GMG.AU 1.51% to $28.78 on Thursday, before this latest move in US yields.
• Gold: GC=F settled at US$4,574.80, up 1.90% on the session and 4.78% across two. The gold miners ETF GDX.US added 2.59% and NEM.US 2.05%. Australian producers moved first, on Thursday: EVN.AU +10.16%, NEM.AU +6.94%, NST.AU +6.21%.
• Brent crude: BZ=F settled at US$93.15, up 1.67% and 2.51% above Monday's US$90.87, on a threatened US sanctions campaign against Iran and thinner Strait of Hormuz traffic. STO.AU closed Thursday at $8.45 and WDS.AU at $33.61.
• US consumer names: WMT.US -9.15%, HD.US -2.85% and AMZN.US -2.16% led the decline while the largest technology lines held up, with NVDA.US -0.33%, MSFT.US -0.47% and META.US -0.04%.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,641.16 (-0.87%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,067.17 (-1.00%)
• Dow Jones: 52,759.21 (-1.32%)
• Russell 2000: 2,992.43 (-1.34%)
• VIX: 16.01 (+7.52%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,641.16 on 20 August 2026, down 0.87%, its third fall in four sessions. The Russell 2000 lost 1.34%, the steepest of the four major US indices, so the selling extended past Walmart. Materials went the other way. FCX.US rose 3.08%, VALE.US 2.37%, NEM.US 2.05%, RIO.US 1.72% and BHP.US 1.45%. The VIX added 7.52% to 16.01.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,574.80/oz (+1.90%)
• Brent: US$93.15 (+1.67%)
• WTI: US$86.28 (+0.52%)
• Copper: US$6.4815/lb (-0.09%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7117 (-0.11%)
• US Dollar Index: 98.84 (+0.01%)

Gold at US$4,574.80 and Brent at US$93.15 both settled higher while the US Dollar Index held at 98.84, up 0.01%. Copper lagged at US$6.4815 a pound, down 0.09%, leaving bullion and crude as the two supports for the diversified miners. AUD/USD at 0.7117 sits 0.12% above Monday's 0.71082, so USD earners such as CSL.AU face no currency translation swing into the open.

Key themes for ASX open

• EVN.AU closed Thursday at $15.07, up 10.16%, two days after reporting FY26 net profit of A$1,475 million, up 59%, a 62% dividend lift to 41 cents fully franked, and a shift to A$1.347 billion of net cash. Gold added another 1.90% overnight.
• The ASX 200 Financials index fell 1.93% on Thursday, the weakest of the sector indices, with CBA.AU -2.66%, WBC.AU -1.80% and ANZ.AU -1.62%. US long yields rose again overnight.
• BHP.AU at $65.75 and RIO.AU at $173.04 closed Thursday up 3.20% and 1.81%; their US lines added a further 1.45% and 1.72% overnight.
• IEL.AU closed at $1.72, down 20.74% on Thursday and at its lowest level on record, the largest single-name fall in the index.
• Bell Potter cut TLX.AU to hold from buy this morning, ahead of a decision on its Pixclara imaging agent that the broker expects within days.

Economic calendar today

• 09:00 AEST: S&P Global Australia flash PMIs for August. July readings were manufacturing 52.0, services 53.6 and composite 53.2.
• Results due include CHC.AU, JHX.AU (first quarter FY27), TPG.AU, GQG.AU, ING.AU, NWH.AU and GYG.AU.

What to watch

• July employment fell 15,800 against a 15,000 gain expected, and the unemployment rate printed 4.5% against 4.4%. The RBA's own August forecast had 4.5% arriving by December, so the labour market reached that mark five months early with the cash rate at 4.35%.
• RBA minutes land Tuesday 25 August and the monthly trimmed-mean CPI indicator Wednesday 26 August, where the prior reading was 3.6%.
• Jackson Hole runs 27 to 29 August, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh giving his first keynote there on Friday 28 August.

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