ASX morning 26 May: oil's 6% slide splits the open, Wall Street shut for Memorial Day

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +1.2% (8,734)

SPI 200 futures rose 1.2% to 8,734 — about 0.5% above Monday's 8,692 cash close — pointing to a higher ASX open. Brent crude's 6.28% slide to US$93.92, on US-Iran de-escalation hopes that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sank Woodside (WDS.AU −4.24%) on Monday while lifting Qantas (QAN.AU +5.76%) as jet-fuel costs eased. Wall Street was shut for Memorial Day, leaving US index futures (S&P 500 e-minis +0.89%, Nasdaq-100 +1.25%) as the only overnight lead.

Overnight Wall Street

US cash equities were closed Monday for Memorial Day, so there is no fresh session — Friday 22 May closes stand as the last cash prints:

• S&P 500: 7,473.47 (+0.37%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,343.97 (+0.19%)
• Dow Jones: 50,579.70 (+0.58%)
• VIX: 16.59 (Friday close)

US index futures traded the holiday session and firmed: S&P 500 e-minis +0.89% to 7,557.75, Nasdaq-100 futures +1.25% to 29,927. Those e-minis now sit 84 points above Friday's 7,473.47 cash close — the gap New York will reprice when it reopens. The same US-Iran de-escalation optimism driving oil lower underpinned the bid. Cash markets reopen Tuesday night AEST, so those gains face their first full-session test then.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Brent: US$93.92 (−6.28%)
• WTI: US$90.37 (−6.45%)
• Gold: US$4,575/oz (+1.15%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe (China import): US$109.67/t (−0.11%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7175 (+0.63%)

Crude extended last week's decline — both benchmarks had already fallen about 5% over the prior week — as the US and Iran moved closer to a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore disrupted supply. That is a direct negative for producers WDS.AU and STO.AU and an input-cost relief for airlines and freight. Gold firmed 1.15% to US$4,575/oz. Iron ore at US$109.67/t was little changed, neutral for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU. AUD/USD at 0.7175, up 0.63%, sits firmer against a softer US dollar.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy faces follow-through: Brent −6.28% and WTI −6.45% extend Monday's rout, when the S&P/ASX 200 Energy index fell 2.41% and WDS.AU (−4.24%) and STO.AU (−3.64%) led the market lower.
• Gold miners start higher: spot gold +1.15% to US$4,575/oz, after the All Ordinaries Gold index jumped 4.93% Monday — NST.AU +5.74%, EVN.AU +4.19% — while the broader S&P/ASX 200 Materials index rose 1.84% and consumer discretionary and tech each added 1.02%.
• Airlines and freight get fuel relief: QAN.AU rose 5.76% Monday as crude's slide cut jet-fuel costs; uranium name PDN.AU added 3.70%.
• Iron ore majors steady: spot iron ore at US$109.67/t leaves BHP.AU (+0.62%), RIO.AU (+1.62%) and FMG.AU (+1.67%) without a fresh commodity push after Monday's gains.
• Banks soft into CPI: CBA.AU slipped 0.65% Monday, with the April inflation print due Wednesday.

Economic calendar today

• Tuesday domestic data is light; the week's defining release lands Wednesday.
• Wed 27 May, 11:30 AEST: April monthly CPI indicator — March accelerated to 4.6%, the fastest since September 2023.
• Tuesday night AEST: US cash equities reopen after Memorial Day, the first Wall Street session since Friday.

What to watch

• Brent near US$94: whether it holds or extends as US-Iran headlines develop.
• US reopen tonight: the first cash read on whether index futures' +0.89% to +1.25% holiday gains stick.
• AUD/USD at 0.7175 into Wednesday's CPI, the next domestic catalyst.

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