ASX 200 set to open 85 points lower as crude sinks 5% and Wall Street's gain narrows to two stocks

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.95%

SPI futures point to an ASX 200 open 85 points or 0.95% lower on Monday 3 August 2026, near 8,892 against Friday's 8,976.8 close, after the weekend repriced oil and a week in which the local index gained 2.33%. WTI crude trades at US$80.47 in Monday's electronic session, down 4.96% from Friday's US$84.67 settle, after President Trump held off strikes on Iran and OPEC+ approved 188,000 barrels a day more supply from September. Wall Street closed Friday higher, but the S&P 500's 0.70% gain came from Amazon AMZN.US +15.32% and Alphabet GOOGL.US +6.73% while the Russell 2000 fell 0.50%.

Overnight drivers

• Crude reversal: WTI sits at US$80.47, down 4.96% from Friday's settle, with a US$78.78 session low. Trump said Iran and regional governments asked him to hold off, and that negotiators had agreed parameters to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ then approved 188,000 barrels a day from September, completing the unwind of its 2023 voluntary cuts. Energy is about 3.4% of the ASX 200, and WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU carry most of that weight.
• US long yields at multi-year highs: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.745%, up 8.2 basis points and its highest since January 2025, with the 30-year at 5.25%, its highest since 2007. Financials and property together are about 34% of the ASX 200, which puts CBA.AU and GMG.AU closest to that move.
• A two-stock US rally: AMZN.US +15.32% and GOOGL.US +6.73% supplied most of the S&P 500's gain while AAPL.US fell 7.35% and the Russell 2000 lost 0.50%. META.US added 3.28%, MSFT.US 3.02% and NVDA.US 2.93%.
• Gold firmer after Friday's fall: December gold settled at US$4,107 on Friday, down 1.3%, then traded at US$4,126.60 in Monday's electronic session, up 0.48%. NST.AU, EVN.AU and CMM.AU track it.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,489.72 (+0.70%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,373.85 (+1.00%)
• Dow Jones: 52,485.03 (+0.53%)
• Russell 2000: 2,931.34 (-0.50%)
• VIX: 15.99 (-6.44%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72 on Friday 31 July 2026, up 0.70%, on a gain concentrated in two companies. Amazon's 15.32% jump was the largest single contribution and Alphabet added 6.73%. Apple went the other way at -7.35%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.50% on the same day. The largest technology names rose and the average US stock did not. VIX fell 6.44% to 15.99.

Europe finished Friday close to unchanged. Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.21% to 6,358, the DAX added 0.07% to 25,629, the CAC gained 0.28% to 8,510, and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.27% to 10,868.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• WTI crude: US$80.47 (-4.96% against Friday's settle, Monday electronic trade)
• Gold: US$4,126.60/oz (+0.48% against Friday's settle, Monday electronic trade)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$98.00/t (-0.25%, Friday)
• AUD/USD: 0.7049 (+0.31%, Friday close)

WTI's US$80.47 print sits 4.96% below Friday's US$84.67 settle and about 13% below its July high. ASX energy names last traded against the higher number, so Monday is their first session priced off the weekend news. Iron ore at US$98.00 a tonne stays below US$100, and Bell Potter lifted its Fortescue FMG.AU rating one notch on Monday following the stock's recent decline. AUD/USD at 0.7049 held above 70 US cents.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Energy: WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU meet a 4.96% fall in WTI since their last close. Refiner ALD.AU posted a quarterly update last week, and Exxon CFO Neil Hansen described refining capacity, not crude supply, as the binding constraint in the energy system.
• Banks and property: CBA.AU fell 0.40% on Friday. Financials and property make up about a third of the index, and a 30-year US yield of 5.25% with the 10-year at 4.745% lifts the discount rate applied to both.
• Technology and healthcare: ASX technology rose 8.2% and healthcare 5.5% last week, the two strongest local sectors, and both remain down more than 40% over 12 months. WTC.AU fell 4.20% and CSL.AU 3.81% on Friday, against those weekly sector gains.
• Gold: NST.AU fell 0.60% and CMM.AU 0.23% on Friday while EVN.AU rose 1.90%. Evolution Mining agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources CNB.AU in a $213m all-scrip transaction last week.

Economic calendar

• Mon 3 Aug: a light local session with no major Australian data scheduled.
• Tue 4 Aug, 12:00am AEST: US ISM manufacturing PMI for July, the first offshore data point of the week.
• Thu 6 Aug: Australian trade balance.
• Fri 7 Aug, evening AEST: US non-farm payrolls. Economists expect 88,000 new jobs in July and a steady jobless rate.
• Tue 11 Aug, 2:30pm AEST: RBA cash rate decision. The rates market prices 1 basis point of tightening for that meeting after the June quarter CPI came in below expectations.

What to watch

• Breadth at the open. Friday's ASX session reached 9,059.8 before closing at 8,976.8, an 83-point fade, so the local market showed the same narrowing Wall Street did.
• Whether the 4.96% crude fall holds. Trump announced a pause rather than a formal ceasefire, and Iran denied agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reporting season volume. August results build through this week, and Myer MYR.AU issued a profit warning last week citing inflation, higher interest rates and weaker housing conditions.

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