ASX 200 morning brief, 22 September 2026: chip rally, crude slide, Bullock at 1pm

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.3%

The S&P 500 closed at 7,764.70 on 21 September 2026, up 1.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite set a record 27,122.09 (+2.26%) on a semiconductor rally. META.US rose 11.43% to US$741.25 after Wells Fargo raised its Meta valuation to US$796 from US$640 and the company's Muse assistant reached number one on the US App Store. Front-month WTI settled 4.51% lower at US$95.78. Technology and copper miners open on a positive lead this morning; energy and gold producers do not.

Overnight drivers

• Semiconductors: INTC.US +12.14% to US$121.78, AMD.US +9.95% to US$615.52, SMCI.US +5.40%, MU.US +2.77%, NVDA.US +2.30%. Intel's 49%-owned Altera filed confidentially for a US IPO, SK hynix opened early talks about producing memory at Intel plants, and Tigress Financial raised its Intel valuation to US$145 from US$118. AMD reached a US$1 trillion market value during the session. ASX technology closed Monday lower: XRO.AU -4.30%, NXT.AU -3.35%, WTC.AU -0.90%.
• Crude: WTI October -4.51% to US$95.78, Brent November -3.40% to US$100.34, a fourth consecutive decline. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure is proving less disruptive than first priced as barrels reroute through Oman, and President Trump said he would probably meet Iran's president at the UN General Assembly. XOM.US fell 3.20%. STO.AU closed Monday 1.65% higher and KAR.AU 1.38% higher, both before that settlement.
• Gold and copper diverged: gold settled 0.93% lower at US$4,383.90 while copper added 2.23% to US$6.7625/lb, its highest of the past four settlements. EVN.AU -1.09%, NST.AU -1.08% and NEM.AU -1.98% closed Monday lower; S32.AU -1.22% and SFR.AU -0.36% open against copper's gain.
• Rates and volatility: the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.5 basis points to 4.963%, the VIX closed at 14.87, and bitcoin traded at US$86,523 (+6.56%). Cheaper crude removes one of the inputs that pushed Australian forecasters toward a September rate increase.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,764.70 (+1.49%)
• Nasdaq: 27,122.09 (+2.26%)
• Dow: 52,048.83 (+0.71%)
• Russell 2000: 2,875.36 (+0.52%)
• VIX: 14.87

The S&P 500 opened at 7,692.83, held a session low of 7,691.19 and finished near its high of 7,779.22, its best single session since early August. The Nasdaq's 27,122.09 close is its first record since June. Investors bought artificial-intelligence hardware ahead of a state dinner this week between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping that several AI chief executives are expected to attend. TSLA.US added 3.03% to US$375.30 and AMZN.US 1.87% to US$258.45. Energy was the exception: XOM.US lost 3.20% to US$158.30 as crude fell for a fourth session.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,383.90/oz (-0.93%)
• Brent, November: US$100.34 (-3.40%)
• WTI, October: US$95.78 (-4.51%)
• Copper: US$6.7625/lb (+2.23%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7124 (+0.01%)

Copper's 2.23% settlement gain supports BHP.AU, RIO.AU and S32.AU, which each closed Monday lower. WTI October has lost US$10.05 since last Tuesday's US$105.83 settlement. Energy producers carried that price support into last week and no longer have it. The Australian dollar sat at 0.7115 on Friday and 0.7124 now, so CSL.AU and other USD earners translate revenue at last week's rate.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Technology: XRO.AU closed Monday at $60.08 (-4.30%) and NXT.AU at $10.98 (-3.35%), against a 2.26% Nasdaq gain and a move of more than 3% in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index overnight.
• Energy: WTI settled 4.51% lower after the Australian close. STO.AU finished Monday at $8.65 (+1.65%), KAR.AU at $1.84 (+1.38%), WDS.AU at $32.44 (+0.06%).
• Gold: bullion lost another 0.93% overnight. EVN.AU $13.55 (-1.09%), NST.AU $21.97 (-1.08%) and GMD.AU $7.55 (-0.66%) all fell on Monday; CMM.AU gained 1.92%.
• M&A: PPT.AU fell 15.10% to $16.64 after rejecting EQT's best-and-final A$22.50 per share proposal and ending engagement. TLX.AU dropped 11.71% to $15.76 after agreeing to buy Germany's ITM Isotope Technologies for about US$1.65bn, near $3.3bn including assumed debt, with US$1.25bn of it in 105.8m Telix shares.
• Banks: CBA.AU +0.37%, NAB.AU +0.65%, WBC.AU +0.52%, ANZ.AU +0.93% and MQG.AU +1.22% on Monday, with the US 10-year 3.5 basis points lower overnight and the RBA decision seven days out.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

• 05:00 - RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, podcast appearance
• 11:30 - ABS release, Selected economic and social outcomes of permanent migrants
• 13:00 - RBA Governor Michele Bullock in conversation with CEDA, Sydney, with Q&A and media access
• 17:30 - RBA speech, University of Melbourne Centre for Employment and Labour Relations Law

What to watch

• Bullock's 13:00 appearance is the last scheduled RBA commentary before the 28 to 29 September board meeting. Market pricing puts the odds of a 25 basis point increase to 4.60% near 86%, and CBA, Westpac, NAB, UBS, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley each forecast that move.
• The ASX 200 has now closed three sessions within 1.2 points of each other: 8,732.4 on Thursday, 8,731.2 on Friday, 8,731.9 on Monday. AU VIX at 11.54 (-3.38%) is its lowest of the past five sessions, down from 14.33 on 15 September.
• Crude prices feed the inflation numbers the board reads next week. Oil strength was one reason forecasters moved to a September increase, and WTI October has given back 9.50% over four sessions.

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