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ASX 200 futures fall 0.7% as two of the big four pull their RBA hike calls forward to September

CBA and Westpac now see the Reserve Bank lifting the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, and markets put the odds at 93%.

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,731+0.40%
AU VIX11.94-12.75%
S&P 5007,651+0.17%
NASDAQ26,523+0.39%
Dow51,683-0.18%
VIX14.81-4.08%
Russell 20002,860-0.50%
Gold4,413-0.26%
Brent103.87-0.71%
AUD/USD0.7127+0.21%
US 10Y4.998+1.03%
ES_F7,726+0.18%
NQ_F29,984+0.22%

ASX 200 futures fall 0.7% as two of the big four pull their RBA hike calls forward to September

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.7%

ASX 200 futures fell 0.7% to 8,711 by 7am AEST on Monday 21 September 2026 after Commonwealth Bank CBA.AU and Westpac WBC.AU both moved their Reserve Bank rate-hike calls from November to September, with CBA citing upside risks to inflation that are now materialising. Applied Materials AMAT.US was the largest overnight single-name move at +6.51%, part of a semiconductor lift that took the Nasdaq Composite up 0.39% to 26,522.5. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed back above 5% at 4.998%, up 5.1 basis points, two days after the Fed lifted its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

Overnight drivers

  • RBA hike repricing: markets imply a 93% chance the Reserve Bank lifts the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60% on 29 September, with 4.85% priced by early 2027. ANZ.AU is now the only big-four bank still forecasting November. CBA.AU, NAB.AU and Goodman Group GMG.AU carry the most exposure to that repricing.
  • US 10-year back above 5%: the yield closed at 4.998%, up 5.1 basis points on Friday. US rate-sensitive sectors fell hardest: the utilities ETF XLU.US lost 1.42% and the Russell 2000 0.50%, while the S&P 500 added 0.17%.
  • Semiconductor-led US gains the ASX cannot import: AMAT.US +6.51% and NVDA.US +1.34% pushed the technology ETF XLK.US up 0.82%, while the Dow fell 0.18%. The ASX 200 has no comparable semiconductor weight, so Friday's US gain does not transfer to the local open.
  • Crude eased on Saudi re-routing: Brent settled at US$103.87, down 0.71%, after Saudi Arabia shifted exports through the Strait of Hormuz following the East-West pipeline shutdown on 11 September. Woodside WDS.AU fell 1.70% and Santos STO.AU 0.70% at Friday's close.
  • Gold held above US$4,400: gold futures are at US$4,413.20, down 0.26% in Monday Globex trade after Friday's US$4,424.90 settle. Northern Star NST.AU rose 2.40%, Evolution EVN.AU 4.42% and Capricorn Metals CMM.AU 4.86% on Friday.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,650.5 (+0.17%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 26,522.5 (+0.39%)
  • Dow: 51,682.6 (-0.18%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,860.4 (-0.50%)
  • VIX: 14.81 (-4.08%)

Friday was a triple-witching session, with options and futures expiring across products. AMAT.US +6.51% and NVDA.US +1.34% led the gainers and lifted the technology ETF XLK.US 0.82%. Xenon Pharmaceuticals XENE.US fell 30.69%, and steel producers Nucor NUE.US and Steel Dynamics STLD.US lost 6.32% and 4.11% after both guided third-quarter earnings below consensus. Netflix NFLX.US fell 4.67% on a Wells Fargo downgrade to underweight.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,413.20/oz (-0.26%)
  • Brent: US$103.87 (-0.71%)
  • Copper: US$6.7115/lb (+0.30%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7127 (+0.21%)

AUD/USD is at 0.7127, up 0.21%. A move to 4.60% on 29 September would widen the AU cash-rate gap over the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% target range. Brent at US$103.87 sits 4.5% below its US$108.75 settle of 15 September, though economists still cite crude above US$100 as part of the case for a September hike. Copper is at US$6.7115 a pound, up 0.30%.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Banks: CBA.AU closed Friday down 1.03% at $152.43 and NAB.AU down 1.91% at $38.47, before the forecast change was published.
  • Energy: WDS.AU -1.70% and STO.AU -0.70% on Friday, with Brent now 4.5% off its 15 September settle.
  • Gold miners: NST.AU +2.40%, EVN.AU +4.42% and CMM.AU +4.86% on Friday, with gold futures at US$4,413.20.
  • Uranium and coal: PDN.AU rose 3.58% to $9.83 on Friday, while WHC.AU fell 2.82% and NHC.AU 0.93%.

ASX announcements and halts

  • Latrobe Magnesium LMG.AU, Wildcat Resources WC8.AU and Cadence Opportunities Fund CDO.AU are halted pending capital raisings.
  • Bounty Oil and Gas BUY.AU is halted pending a material acquisition and a capital raising.

Economic calendar

No Australian data release is scheduled for Monday 21 September. The week's dated entries:

  • Wed 23 Sep, 09:00 AEST: S&P Global flash PMIs for September (August composite 52.0)
  • Thu 24 Sep, 11:30 AEST: ABS labour force for August (previous +20,000 jobs, 4.5% unemployment rate)
  • Tue 29 Sep, 14:30 AEST: RBA cash rate decision

What to watch

  • The ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,731.2, flat on the week at -0.11% and down 3.62% over four weeks from its 9,058.9 close of 21 August.
  • The AU VIX closed Friday at 11.944, down 12.75%, against a US VIX of 14.81.
  • S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% at 7,726.0 and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.22% at 29,983.8 in Monday Asian trade.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →