ASX 200 tipped to open 0.6% lower as Wall Street's records run into a US holiday — Monday 25 May 2026

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.65% (-58 pts)

The S&P/ASX 200 is indicated to open around 58 points, or 0.65%, below Friday's 8,657 close, even though Wall Street finished last week at fresh highs — the Dow up 0.58% to a record 50,580. US cash markets are shut tonight for Memorial Day, so the US session that normally sets the tone into Tuesday does not run, leaving thin global flows and a soft local lead.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,473 (+0.37%) — an eighth straight up week
• Dow: 50,580 (+0.58%) — a record close
• Nasdaq: 26,344 (+0.19%)
• VIX: 16.70 (-0.36%)

Friday's advance was broad-based: every S&P 500 sector except communications rose, led by health care (+1.19%) and technology (+1.02%). The move leaned on a strong reporting season — more than 90% of S&P 500 members have reported, with earnings growth averaging near 28% — alongside progress in Middle East peace talks. Computer makers stood out after Lenovo's results, with Dell at a record and HP up more than 15%; Merck (+5.64%) led the Dow. Nvidia (-1.86%) was the main drag, two sessions after its 20 May report.

US closed tonight — Memorial Day

US equity and bond markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day. For Australia, the practical effect is that the cash session that usually drives the Tuesday open does not trade tonight. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures reopened early Monday AEST a touch firmer (e-minis +0.33% and +0.38%), but holiday liquidity is thin and those prints carry less signal than a cash close.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Copper: US$6.379/lb (+1.35%)
• Brent: US$100.21 (+0.71%)
• WTI: US$96.60 (+0.26%)
• Gold: US$4,523/oz (-0.42%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$109.67/t (-0.11%, 22 May)
• AUD/USD: 0.7160 (+0.13%)

Commodities split cleanly across ASX sectors. Copper's 1.35% lift and Brent back above US$100 favour the base-metal and energy names; gold easing 0.42% to US$4,523 points to a softer start for the gold miners. Iron ore sits at US$109.67/t after rising Australian and Brazilian shipments and elevated Chinese port stocks held the bulk down through May, with Chinese steel demand still weak.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: Brent +0.71% to US$100.21 and WTI +0.26% to US$96.60 hand Santos (STO.AU) and Woodside (WDS.AU) a firm commodity backdrop into the open.
• Gold miners: gold -0.42% to US$4,523 points to a subdued start for Newmont (NEM.AU) and Northern Star (NST.AU).
• Iron-ore majors: at US$109.67/t the bulk price leaves BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU with little support as Chinese steel demand stays soft.
• Base metals: copper +1.35% to US$6.379/lb is the firmest corner of the complex.
• Banks and rate-sensitives: quiet ahead of Wednesday's April inflation indicator, the week's pivotal local read for the rate outlook.

Economic calendar

• Today (Mon 25 May): no top-tier AU data; US markets closed for Memorial Day.
• Wed 27 May, 11:30 AEST: April monthly CPI indicator and Q1 Construction Work Done.
• Wed 27 May, 18:00 AEST: the RBA's Carolyn Hewson delivers the Joseph Fisher Lecture in Adelaide.
• Thu 28 May, 11:30 AEST: Q1 Private Capital Expenditure and April household spending; RBA Bulletin.
• Fri 29 May, 11:30 AEST: April private sector and housing credit.

What to watch

• Whether the indicated 0.65% lower open holds or fades once cash trading begins, with the US futures lead firmer and volatility low (VIX 16.70).
• The split across commodities — energy and copper firm, gold and iron ore soft — and which sector weights set the index direction.
• Wednesday's April inflation indicator as the first hard local data point on the rate path ahead of the RBA's June meeting.

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