ASX 200 called 0.5% lower as oil's Hormuz slide overshadows a Dow record — Thursday 28 May 2026

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.5% (SPI -45 pts)

The S&P/ASX 200 is called about 0.5% lower into Thursday's open, the morning after a 0.7% rally to 8,717.7, as a ~5% overnight slide in crude resets the energy and gold-miner setup. Wall Street finished near records — the Dow added 0.36% to a record 50,644.28 — but the S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq (+0.07%) stalled as chip names pulled back. The single catalyst: Iran's signal it will restore Strait of Hormuz shipping to pre-war levels within a month, which sent WTI crude down about 5% to settle near US$88.68.

Overnight Wall Street

• Dow: 50,644.28 (+0.36%) — record close
• S&P 500: 7,520.36 (+0.02%) — record, but flat
• Nasdaq: 26,674.73 (+0.07%)
• VIX: 16.29 (-4.23%)

The Dow's record leaned on falling energy costs: with crude down ~5%, transport and consumer-facing names led the index higher while semiconductors gave back ground, capping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq near unchanged. VIX fell to 16.29, its lowest in a month, and the AU VIX closed near 12 — volatility pricing is subdued going into the local open. The records on Wall Street are not feeding through to the SPI, which points 0.5% lower.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• WTI crude: ~US$88.68 (-5%) — settled after the Hormuz signal
• Brent crude: US$94.93 (-4.7%)
• Gold: US$4,456/oz (-1%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$109/t (flat)
• Copper: US$6.34/lb (-0.93%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7139 (-0.44%)

The oil move drives the local open. STO.AU and WDS.AU finished Wednesday flat (STO.AU +0.25%, WDS.AU -0.03%) before the bulk of crude's slide printed overnight, so the adjustment lands at today's open rather than Wednesday's close. Gold's 1% slip to US$4,456/oz — pinned on firmer US rate-hike expectations — lowers the base for NEM.AU and NST.AU the same way. Iron ore held at US$109/t, no change for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU after Wednesday's split close (BHP.AU +1.54%, RIO.AU -0.05%, FMG.AU +0.41%). A softer AUD at 0.7139 lifts the AUD value of USD revenue for names like CSL.AU, which bounced 2.44% on Wednesday.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: WTI's ~5% drop to near US$88.68 is the session's clearest sector input; STO.AU and WDS.AU open into a crude price that fell after Wednesday's local close.
• Gold miners: Gold at US$4,456/oz (-1%) lowers the base for NEM.AU and NST.AU.
• Iron ore majors: Iron ore steady at US$109/t leaves BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU with no fresh overnight input after a split Wednesday close.
• Rates and domestic cyclicals: Wednesday's 0.7% index gain followed monthly CPI easing to 4.2%, which the market read as supporting a steady-rates path; retail names WES.AU (+1.41%) and JBH.AU (+1.18%) led that move.

Economic calendar today

• No major domestic data is scheduled for Thursday. The session's drivers are offshore: the US–Iran framework and the Strait of Hormuz reopening timeline, plus the read on US rate expectations that sat behind gold's 1% slide.

What to watch

• Energy and gold miners open into commodity moves that printed after Wednesday's ASX close; the gap between energy's flat Wednesday finish and crude's ~5% slide is the day's most direct adjustment.
• The SPI points 0.5% lower despite the Dow's record 50,644.28 close — a divergence that reflects Wednesday's local rally to 8,717.7 already banking part of the offshore tone.
• VIX at 16.29 and the AU VIX near 12 leave volatility pricing at one-month lows into the open.

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