ASX set to rebound as Wall Street hits records and gold steadies: Friday 29 May 2026

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.65%

The S&P 500 (+0.58% to 7,563.63) and Nasdaq (+0.91% to 26,917.47) both closed at record highs overnight, as an AI-led tech rally and reported progress on a US-Iran ceasefire extension outweighed the hottest US inflation reading in 35 months. The standout was Snowflake (SNOW.US), up 36.48% in its best session on record after lifting second-quarter guidance and reigniting the AI trade. SPI futures point to a 0.65% ASX 200 open, with gold's overnight bounce to US$4,527/oz offering relief to the local gold miners that drove Thursday's 1.43% rout.

What drove the overnight session

• AI and software: SNOW.US +36.48% on raised Q2 guidance dragged the AI complex higher, with PLTR.US +8.17%, ORCL.US +6.67% and MSFT.US +3.47%. The read-through lands on ASX software names XRO.AU and WTC.AU.
• Iran ceasefire hopes: a reported 60-day memorandum to extend the truce and restore Persian Gulf energy exports pulled Brent back to US$92.52, after it spiked above US$96 on Thursday's fresh US strikes. That eases the pressure behind Thursday's local selloff, and WDS.AU and STO.AU track the move.
• US PCE at 3.8%: the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge hit a 35-month high (up from 3.5% in March), but the print matched consensus, and because war-related oil costs drove most of the rise, markets read it as keeping the Fed on hold under new Chair Kevin Warsh rather than forcing a hike.
• Gold rebound: spot bullion recovered about US$137 off a two-month intraday low near US$4,390 to settle around US$4,527/oz, a relief signal for EVN.AU, NST.AU and NEM.AU after each fell more than 7% on Thursday.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,563.63 (+0.58%), record close
• Nasdaq: 26,917.47 (+0.91%), record close
• Dow: 50,668.97 (+0.05%)
• VIX: 15.74 (-3.38%)

The gap between the Nasdaq's 0.91% gain and the Dow's flat finish shows the bid concentrated in megacap tech and AI infrastructure, with the rest of the market barely moving. SNOW.US posted its largest single-session gain on record after raising guidance. The VIX fell back to 15.74, unwinding the spike that followed Thursday's escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, a sign the fear premium from the US strikes is fading even as the underlying standoff stays unresolved.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,527/oz, up roughly US$137 off a two-month low near US$4,390
• Brent: US$92.52 (-0.19%), off Thursday's spike above US$96
• WTI: US$88.75 (-0.17%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: about US$105/t, the highest since January 2026
• AUD/USD: 0.7166 (+0.39%)

Gold's recovery matters most locally after Thursday, when ASX gold miners shed 7% to 10% in one session. Iron ore holding near US$105/t gives BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU a firmer backdrop into the open. Brent at US$92.52 still carries a war-risk premium tied to the Iran standoff, leaving WDS.AU and STO.AU sensitive to Gulf headlines. The AUD at 0.7166 (+0.39%) firmed with the commodity tape and the steadier risk tone, which trims the translated value of USD revenue for offshore earners such as CSL.AU and RMD.AU.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Gold miners after the rout: Thursday's falls ran from GMD.AU (-10.16%) and EVN.AU (-7.76%) to NST.AU (-7.47%) and NEM.AU (-7.22%), and gold's overnight US$137 rebound is the offset.
• Energy and the Iran tape: Brent's US$92.52 level keeps WDS.AU and STO.AU tied to the disputed ceasefire memorandum, which Iran's state media described and the White House called a fabrication.
• AI read-through: Wall Street's tech bid, led by SNOW.US +36.48%, sets a constructive tone for ASX software in XRO.AU and WTC.AU.
• Iron majors: iron ore near US$105/t supports BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU after Thursday's broad-based selling.

Calendar and catalysts (AEST)

• No major Australian data release is scheduled for Friday, so direction tracks offshore.
• The disputed US-Iran memorandum is the swing factor: confirmation would extend the crude pullback, while a denial would restore the war-risk premium.
• The April US PCE print of 3.8% stays in focus into the weekend, with month-end falling on Friday.

What to watch

• Whether the local bounce broadens beyond a gold-miner snapback or stays narrow, as it did on Wall Street where the Dow finished flat.
• Whether Brent holds US$92.52 or unwinds further if the ceasefire memorandum is confirmed.
• The AUD at 0.7166, where further strength would weigh on the translated earnings of offshore-facing healthcare and industrial names.

Context only. Not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.