ASX faces a flat open after Wall Street's Nvidia-led record close; Q1 GDP partials due 11:30 AEST

Sentiment: neutral ASX 200 indicative open: roughly flat (pre-open -0.03%) US futures into the AU session: ES -0.17%, NQ -0.28%

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,599.96 on 1 June 2026, up 0.26%, as a Nvidia-led tech rally and a near-2% energy surge overpowered an oil spike. NVDA.US jumped 6.26% on a new PC-processor launch, pulling DELL.US +10.70% and HPQ.US +8.51% up with it. The local read is softer than that green close suggests: S&P futures have since slipped 0.17%, the AUD sits at 0.7164, and the ASX is set to open near flat into a heavy domestic data morning.

What drove the overnight session

• Nvidia and US tech: NVDA.US +6.26% on a new PC-processor launch carried the Nasdaq +0.42%, with DELL.US +10.70% and HPQ.US +8.51% moving on the same headline. The tech sector added over 2%.
• Energy and oil: the US energy sector rose close to 2%, with Brent at US$95.43 (+0.47%) and WTI at US$92.40 bid while a durable US-Iran ceasefire stayed unresolved.
• Narrow breadth: the record close rested on a small cohort of AI names. The Dow's +0.09% against the Nasdaq's +0.42% shows how concentrated the move was.
• VIX at 16.05 (+4.77% off 15.32): implied volatility rose even as the S&P set a record, an uptick from a still-low base rather than a risk-off signal.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,599.96 (+0.26%), a record close and a ninth straight weekly gain
• Nasdaq: 27,086.81 (+0.42%)
• Dow: 51,078.88 (+0.09%)
• VIX: 16.05 (+4.77%)

The US 10-year yield rose 3bp to 4.47%, recovering off three-week lows. That leaves a mild drag for rate-sensitive REITs and the big-four banks at the open, set against the firmer commodity backdrop below.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,512/oz (+0.13%)
• Brent: US$95.43 (+0.47%)
• WTI: US$92.40 (+0.26%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China: US$105/t (highest since January 2026)
• Copper: US$6.56/lb (+0.12%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7164 (-0.30%)

The miners carry the firmest overnight lead. BHP.AU closed Monday at an all-time high, with iron ore back near US$105 a tonne (its highest since January) and copper steady at US$6.56 a pound. Gold near US$4,512 an ounce, combined with the AUD at 0.7164, keeps the AUD-denominated gold price elevated for NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

• Miners: BHP.AU set a record close Monday; RIO.AU and FMG.AU track iron ore near US$105/t and copper at US$6.56/lb.
• Gold: bullion near US$4,512/oz with the AUD at 0.7164 keeps the AUD-gold price high for NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.
• Energy: Brent at US$95.43 feeds WDS.AU and STO.AU.
• Tech: WTC.AU and XRO.AU come off a four-month-high Monday close; US futures slipping 0.28% cap the Nasdaq's +0.42% lead.
• USD earners: the AUD at 0.7164 raises the AUD value of offshore revenue for CSL.AU and other US-dollar earners.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

• 11:30: Balance of Payments and current account (March quarter) plus Business Indicators (company profits, inventories). These are the net-exports and inventories partials that feed tomorrow's GDP.
• 11:30: Building Approvals (April)
• 11:30: Government Finance Statistics (March quarter)

What to watch

• The Q1 GDP partials at 11:30 are the last read before Wednesday's headline GDP (3 June, 11:30 AEST), where consensus is +0.5% quarter on quarter, down from +0.8% in Q4 2025.
• US futures direction through the AU session: ES -0.17% and NQ -0.28% point to a flat-to-soft open despite the record US cash close.
• The RBA's next decision lands 16 June with the cash rate at 4.35% after three hikes in 2026; forecasters are split between a pause and a fourth increase.

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